n October 21, Nawaz Sharif finally returned to Pakistan after four years in exile. The story of his alleged corruption, indictment, incarceration and exile needs no repetition. Thousands of television hours on certain news channels were dedicated over the years to cultivate a mindset that there was nothing sharif about Nawaz Sharif and his family. The induction of Fifth Generation keyboard warriors on the social media front made it particularly hard for Sharifs at their Park Lane flats.

Nawaz Sharif, however, remained steadfast in conversations in London stating that he was wronged on purpose. He said if he were never to return to Pakistan, then the saga of his political struggle to establish civilian supremacy would make him a morior invictus. ‘Destiny’, it seems, had other plans for him.

Nawaz Sharif stands out as an exception. He is the only politician to have won and lost the premiership three times.

Sharif’s return will no doubt infuse much-needed life into the corpus of his quavering squad that was wandering like a headless chicken ever since he left the country in 2019 following a judicial permission to seek medical treatment for his ailing heart. Shahbaz Sharif was described by detractors as a mere scarecrow and Maryam’s thrust was limited to keeping the lame, the unsure and the faint-hearted in the party. Both, it seems, have done their job.

Courtesy Covid or craft, Nawaz Sharif has had a long rest in London. He should be prepared for his ultimate electoral Armageddon. But before he immerses himself in political activity, he needs a clean chit from the courtrooms. Some of his lawyers sound confident that the Panama-iqama muck will be washed away soon and that Sharif will be able to lead his party in the forthcoming elections. Those who claim to know a little more than his legal eagles say that the script has already been prepared.

There are signs, however, that Sharif’s steed will not gallop into power corridors without a challenge. The Supreme Court ruled last Monday that military trials of civilians were unconstitutional. Can PTI lawyers use the ruling to get quick relief for dozens of PTI leaders, Imran Khan included? If Imran Khan can campaign, the predictions about a final outcome will be drastically impacted.

Pakistan Peoples Party has been clamouring for some time now, accusing the “invisible forces” of Pakistani politics of facilitating Sharif’s return to the country and offering him preferential treatment. Cognisant of its near-absent footprint in the Punjab, the party would like the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) to dent the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) as much as possible. They could even demand that Imran Khan be allowed out of prison even if only for selection of party candidates.

If Imran Khan and Shah Mehmood Qureshi remain locked up, the PTI may find it hard to secure suitable candidates to compete against a Nawaz Sharif-led PML-N. There will then be a real opportunity for the party to repeat a 2013-like performance. The party will then need support from minor allies to form a government. There may be quite a few willing partners.

Sindh, a virtual PPP fortress, has been barren for the PML-N. But what if invoking his urban-money background, Sharif can coax Karachi’s mercantile class, along with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement leadership, and create an urban versus rural alliance? This could very well be the ‘deal’ reached between him and the powers that be: forget the past, forget those who might have played a role in your ouster, focus on the future and economy.

In Balochistan, Sharif will need to pick his partners with great care. Can he give past comrades of negligible political consequence and irate vestiges of the sardari elite a little rest? They could be accommodated somehow but the ‘new kids on the block’ might be a better partnering choice. Sharif will be doing himself no favour if he doesn’t take the ground realities into account. A lot has changed since he was here last.

The PML-N has been on a weak wicket in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The province is likely to throw up a confused political scenario. Those who left Imran Khan after his government fell in 2022 have failed so far to muster the numbers needed to challenge his party’s strong position in the province. Pervez Khattak is trying desperately to lure his former colleagues but has so far seen limited success. With Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUIF) and Aimal Wali Khan’s Awami National Party (ANP) also limping, there is a possibility that the PTI will remain the strongest party.

With Asif Ali Zardari eagerly hoping for a misstep by Nawaz, and Imran Khan praying for a miracle to cause a change of heart in Rawalpindi, the road ahead looks pretty promising for the elder Sharif. He is known for keeping his cards close to his chest. But he is also famous for ignoring some of the basic rules of realpolitik. Asking for too many slots for family members could be one such howler. Demanding accountability for certain retired soldiers could be another. The last time he tried, the effort failed. Will he try and fail again?

The writer is resident editor of The News in Islamabad