hen Salem was a child, he used to play marbles in big fields. Now, those fields are gone. The city, with its huge buildings and factories, even ones that manufacture marbles – the sort he used to play with as a child, seems to have swallowed up the farm land that once surrounded it.

Muhammad Salem, aged 50, is a resident of Darmangi Garden, located on Warsak Road in Peshawar. When Salem is out and about in the city, he notices that it is getting hotter and that the weather patterns are changing. This climate change is happening all over the world. He remembers that when he was younger, there was no electricity here, but now things have changed.

Salem’s story is a piece in a big jigsaw puzzle. He’s not the only one reading such signs; ‘erratic’ weather patterns and their impact on lives as urbanisation takes over, are hard to miss.

Even if people are not the same everywhere, they are going through similar changes because of these big changes around them.

According to an Asian Development Bank Report, a 6 degrees Celsius increase in temperature is predicted to occur over the Asian landmass, making it possible for nations like Pakistan to endure much hotter weather.

An important aspect of the impending change is Pakistan’s fast-growing urban footprint and associated ecological degradations that increase vulnerability. The single greatest challenge that Pakistani governments, policymakers and entrepreneurs face today is transforming cities into sustainable environments that can cope with ecological degradation.

If urbanisation and sustainable city expansion are not compatible, it could result in environmental harm. Pakistan has the highest rate of urbanisation in South Asia, a region known for hectic and disorganized megacities and suburban settlements.

There are sprawling neighbourhoods without sound urban planning, adequate sanitation, sewerage, water and transportation infrastructure, waste disposal mechanisms and social inclusion policies. This has contributed to air, noise and water pollution as well as to the depletion of freshwater resources, rising inequality and environmental degradation.

Nearly half of the country’s population is expected to reside in cities by 2025, according to the United Nations Population Division. Therefore, it is crucial that we fundamentally remodel our cities and urban regions, promote eco-friendly behaviours, provide access to green, cheap housing, combat rising unemployment and inequities and increase self-sufficiency.

By 2030, Pakistan, which currently has 250 million citizens, will have the fifth-highest population in the world. According to a UN report, by 2030, the proportion of Pakistan’s population living in urban areas is predicted to increase to 50 per cent from the 32 per cent recorded in the 1998 census and 38 per cent from the 2023 census.

In Peshawar, three types of in-migration has been observed. This movement of people is driving the urbanisation project.

Broadly, the three factors are the promise of economic prosperity, access to better social services and displacement, brought on either by man-made violence or natural catastrophes.

The urbanisation process that ensues to accommodate, at least partially, the needs of an unplanned influx of population is then eclipsed by degradation instead of sustainable development. Population growth, overcrowding in hospitals and schools, choked highways, rising pollution, especially water contamination, inadequate sanitation and solid waste management all contribute to this situation.

An official in the Directorate of Urban Planning and Development, Peshawar, acknowledges these difficulties. “Rapid urbanisation has strained our infrastructure,” he says. “It’s difficult to strike a balance between environmental sustainability and development ambitions. Policies must evolve to address urbanisation’s environmental impact,” he stresses, adding “…effective implementation and fines for non-compliance could drive positive change.”

According to the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 report, low- and middle-income nations experienced 53 per cent of all worldwide disasters in the past ten years. They also accounted for 93 per cent of the fatalities.

Hazardous and unregulated urban development results in calamities and has profoundly divisive effects. United Nations World Urbanisation Prospect 2014 says that by 2050, the proportion of people living in urban areas is projected to increase to 66 per cent. It is anticipated that Africa and Asia will see 90 per cent urban growth, with South Asia topping the list with significant capital expenditure to develop new homes.

The World Bank Report From Urban Risk to Resilience—Building Safer Cities, 2016 reveals that there is a housing scarcity since 1.4 million people move into urban areas every week. By 2050, more residential units will be constructed for human habitation than ever before to meet the world’s growing housing demand.

The State Bank of Pakistan estimated an urban housing shortage of 4.4 million in 2015. The five largest cities in Pakistan will have 78 per cent of the total housing shortage by 2035. The Framework of Economic Growth and Vision 2025 explicitly acknowledge the housing crisis in Pakistan, to be mainly due to horizontal urban growth. The construction of suburban housing societies is a visible threat as they consume farm lands.

A research report titled World Water Supply and Demand 1995 to 2025 explains that groundwater depletion and deteriorating surface water quality are caused by industrialisation, urbanisation and population growth, together with inefficient water use.

These stressors are aggravated by climate change. 78 per cent of the world’s population will experience both physical and economic water scarcity by 2025. The amount of water available per person in Pakistan has already decreased, from 5,300 m³ in 1947 to less than 1,000 m³ in 2016. In Pakistan, 120 million people are estimated to experience acute water scarcity for at least a portion of the year.

According to national estimates, the groundwater table has been lowered by 15 to 20 feet in the Punjab over the past five to six years. An annual decline of 6 to 21 inches has been observed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Urban water resilience may be further threatened by droughts, unplanned water supply interruptions and deteriorating networks. This could lead to social and ethnic tensions, particularly in cities with mixed populations.

To encourage sustainable urban expansion that protects the environment and assures a high standard of living for both the present and future generations, the nation’s politicians, urban planners and the citizens must work together.

The writer is a freelance journalist