ecent statements by key government officials have cleared the air regarding the end of the National Assembly’s tenure and the conduct of the next general elections.

Addressing a ceremony on July 12, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif said: “I assure you that the term of our government will be over on August 14. The elections will be held either in October or November. The decision is for the Election Commission of Pakistan to take.”

Earlier, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif had made a similar public statement. “After completing its term, the National Assembly will stand dissolved. Preparations have almost started for the next general elections,” Asif, a senior Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz leader, had told party workers at a convention in Sialkot on July 9.

Elections have been a consistent demand of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) ever since it resigned from the assemblies.

Some PTI leaders, including former prime minister Imran Khan, had claimed that the PDM parties wanted to extend the tenure of the National Assembly instead of holding elections. Their fears were based essentially on the delay in holding elections to the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies that were dissolved by chief ministers loyal to the PTI. The PTI had also criticised the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) after the parliament authorised it to announce election dates through an amendment.

The National Assembly will complete its term on August 12. Once the National Assembly completes its term, the elections must be held in 60 days. When the assembly does not complete its term, the elections may be held in 90 days after the dissolution.

According to PDM insiders, the coalition parties had discussed the idea of extending the term of the National Assembly in a meeting a few months ago. “However, the suggestion met strong opposition from the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Awami National Party. They clearly said that they would neither stay in the government nor in the National Assembly after August 12. The proposal was then dropped,” the sources said.

In June, the treasury passed a law to empower the ECP to announce the election dates without consulting the president. Earlier, the ECP was required to consult the president on poll dates. A parliamentary committee was also formed to propose electoral reforms. So far, it has proposed 67 amendments to the election laws to ensure fair and free elections.

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif had made a similar public statement earlier. “After completing its term, the National Assembly will stand dissolved. Preparations have almost started for the next general elections,” Asif had told party workers at a convention in Sialkot on July 9.

Rumors about a delay in the elections were strengthened after some PTI leaders started telling people that the government was conspiring to delay the elections and was planning to either prolong the term of the current setup or install a caretaker setup for a longer period. The PTI leaders had expressed these concerns in meetings with foreign diplomats and a delegation of the International Monetary Fund.

Meanwhile, a statement by the head of the Election Observation Mission of the EU Parliament, Michael Gahler, was also reported. He reportedly said the European Union might not send its election observers to Pakistan in 2023. “Pakistan is yet to invite the EU Observers for the next general elections. If the elections were to be held by October, the time has already passed to invite our observers. We need three to four months for that. EU experts can still go to Pakistan (for the elections),” he said.

The ECP, responding to his statement, issued a handout: “The ECP, traditionally and as per its mandate, has always welcomed both national and international observers to monitor the process of elections to ensure transparency. The organisation has worked dedicatedly on framing a comprehensive code of conduct for international observers this year. It will be looking forward to all observation missions for upcoming General Elections. As per SOPs, the invitations for international observers will be commenced by mid of August 2023. The ECP shall float international invites through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) (under Section 238 of the Elections Act, 2017); once the date of the General Elections is announced.”

Sources tell The News on Sunday that the PPP has proposed that the government should send the advice for the dissolution of the assembly to President Arif Alvi on August 8. “If he approves the advice immediately, the National Assembly would stand dissolved four days before completing it term. If he declines to sign the advice, the NA would stand dissolved in 48 hours after the advice is received by the president. In both scenarios, the elections could then be held in 90 days. If the assembly is dissolved on August 10, the elections can be held till November 10. If the NA completes its tenure on August 12, the elections are supposed to be held by October 13 (within 60 days). The 60 days window does not suit the PDM parties. Therefore, it will likely advise the president to dissolve the assembly a few days earlier,” the sources say.

However, under the law the ECP can delay elections on account of a poor law and order situation, lack of necessary funds or natural calamities like floods. It had told the Supreme Court it could not hold the mandated elections in the Punjab and the KP as it had not received the funds, security and manpower from the concerned institutions.

Sources in the government say an election schedule is unlikely to be announced till September 12. “If monsoon floods don’t devastate Pakistan again and the law and order situation does not deteriorate further, the elections will be held in November 2023. If the country is affected by one of these factors, the elections might be delayed until the first quarter of 2024. The government will prefer elections by November 2023,” the sources said.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher