akistan, the fifth most populous country in the world, is on track to becoming the third most populous nation by 2053, surpassing the United States of America.

The exponential population growth in Pakistan raises significant concerns about the implications for human and economic development, climate change, water scarcity, poverty, security and stability.

High population growth remains a leading factor behind poor health and education outcomes, soaring unemployment rates and inequality.

According to the United Nations’ medium term projection, Pakistan’s working-age population (15-64) as a proportion of the total population will reach its peak around 2050. This demographic shift presents a time-limited window of opportunity to harness the benefits of a demographic dividend— a multiyear economic growth.

Many countries, particularly in Asia, have experienced significant and sustained economic growth by capitalising on this. However, realising this potential requires implementing appropriate social and economic policies and programmes, specifically in the areas of family planning, girls’ education, and youth economic empowerment.

Regrettably, due to a lack of foresight and political will, Pakistan has wasted nearly three decades of the demographic transition opportunity. If the country continues on its current trajectory, it is poised to face a demographic disaster.

A modelling study by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) projects dire consequences if no corrective measures are taken. By 2030, approximately 89.9 million people, or 34.4 percent of the population, could fall below the poverty line.

Furthermore, 97.7 million individuals, or 37.4 percent of the population, may experience food insecurity. Alarming statistics also indicate that 11.1 million children, nearly 35.9 percent, will face stunting, while a staggering 58 percent of children are expected to achieve only minimal proficiency in reading.

Access to safe drinking water is estimated to be out of reach for 57 percent of the population. 43 percent of urban dwellers may find themselves living in slums. The high population growth rate will undoubtedly exacerbate climate change adaptation and resilience issues, strain water resources and potentially contribute to political instability and conflict.

In light of these challenges, key stakeholders, including the government, its development partners and relevant authorities are urged to take immediate action. Here are five critical demands that should be addressed:

Strong political commitment and effective governance on population policy: It is crucial to elevate population policy as a national priority and integrate it into all development initiatives. Regular performance evaluations at the highest levels, such as prime minister and chief minister, are necessary to monitor commitments regarding population dynamics.

Increase public financing and improve expenditure efficiency for family planning nationwide: the focus should be on the procurement of contraceptives, expanding the lady health worker programme, conducting behaviour change communications and establishing public-private partnerships.

Enhance coordination and integration between the Population Welfare Departments and Health Departments: By improving access to family planning services for women, particularly with the goal of achieving universal health coverage, the government can bridge gaps and ensure comprehensive reproductive healthcare services.

Re-evaluate the criteria for the National Finance Award: Currently, 82 percent of the fund allocations are based on population. This is a disincentive for provinces to prioritise family planning programmes and population policy. A recalibration of the criteria is necessary to incentivise proactive measures.

Implement multi-sectoral interventions to leverage the demographic dividend: By increasing investment in education and skill development for youth, with a particular focus on girls’ education, gender equality and women’s economic empowerment, Pakistan can harness the potential of its young population and secure a prosperous future for all citizens.

The nation stands at a critical crossroads. The choices made today will determine the trajectory of its future. The headlines that may grace the pages of newspapers in the year 2050 hold the potential for even grimmer and more harrowing realities if immediate action is not taken to address the pressing population issue.

Without swift and decisive measures, Pakistan risks plunging into a downward spiral of socio-economic challenges that could reverberate for generations to come.

On this World Population Day, let us collectively pledge to prioritise population policy and work towards a better future for all Pakistanis. With strategic interventions and concerted efforts, Pakistan can transform its population challenges into opportunities, ensuring sustainable development and improved quality of life for generations to come.

The writer is a health advisor working on family planning, health systems and demography in an international public sector organisation based in Pakistan