he first successful no-confidence motion in Pakistan’s parliamentary history against Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf’s chairman, Imran Khan, has breathed new political life into the one struggling party. Khan now claims that the PTI will win a two-thirds majority in the upcoming general elections. A thorough analysis of by-election results in 2022 suggests, however, that it may only have a strong presence in a hung parliament.

In April 2022, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a coalition of 11 parties currently ruling the country, removed Khan from office through a no-confidence motion. By way of a response, 123 members of the National Assembly from the PTI tendered resignations, claiming that the motion was a conspiracy orchestrated by the United States. Prior to Khan’s ouster, the PTI had been struggling politically on account of its poor governance in government. The party had lost several by-elections to the PML-N, the PPP and the JUI-F in the Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh in 2020 and 2021. It had also lost some of the seats it had won in the 2018 elections. These defeats for the PTI had served as a morale booster for the opposition parties at the time.

However, Khan’s narrative about an alleged US conspiracy to remove him from power seemed to work in his favour, making him more popular than he had been in 2018, as evidenced by the results of by-elections held after his removal from office.

In April 2022, the PDM made another move to try to take control of the Punjab from the PTI. First, it introduced a no-confidence motion against the then-chief minister, Usman Buzdar, who resigned from his office. The PTI then nominated Chaudhry Pervez Elahi as its candidate for the position. However, Elahi was unable to defeat Hamza Shahbaz because 25 members of the Punjab Assembly from the PTI defected and voted for Shahbaz. As a result, these defectors were removed from the assembly under the Defection Clause. Twenty of them ran in by-elections to regain their seats. The PML-N, as promised, gave them party tickets to run against PTI candidates. The elections were held on July 18, and all pollsters and analysts predicted that the PML-N would win due to three factors; one, all the by-elections were being held in the Punjab, which had been a stronghold of the PML-N; two, the PML-N was already ruling the province; and three, the military establishment was not supporting the PTI like it had done in 2018.

The election results went against all predictions and surveys, with the PTI winning 15 seats while the PML-N managed to win only five. The results showed two things: one, that the PTI’s narrative had influenced the public, and two, that the voters had rejected the defecting MPAs. Some of the races were close, but overall the PTI candidates won comfortably.

Based on the by-elections results, the PTI began claiming that it would win a two-thirds majority in the next elections. This impression was further strengthened by the results of the October 2022 by-elections for 10 National Assembly and three Punjab Assembly seats, in which the PTI won eight NA and two PA seats.

The speaker of the National Assembly had accepted the resignations of 11 PTI members. However, one of the members went to the Islamabad High Court and claimed that he had not resigned. This led to the issuance of an election schedule for 10 seats. Imran Khan contested nine of these seats, winning eight and losing one to a PPP candidate, Abdul Hakim Baloch, in Malir, Karachi. The PTI also lost another National Assembly seat in Multan, where Mehr Bano Qureshi, daughter of Shah Mehmood Qureshi, lost her native seat to the PPP’s Ali Musa Gilani, son of Yousaf Raza Gilani, by a margin of 25,000 votes. Of the three Punjab Assembly seats, the PTI won two and the PML-N won one.

It is unlikely, however, that this will lead the PTI to a two-thirds majority. It is worth noting that Khan personally contested nine out of the 10 seats. He won half with a margin of less than 15,000 votes and barely won the others. He also lost a seat to a PPP candidate in Malir, which may be a cause for concern for Khan and the PTI because the constituency is in an urban area. This result challenged the notion that the PTI will dominate such constituencies in Sindh.

It is also worth noting that none of the PDM’s high-profile leaders was involved in campaigning for these by-elections. The PPP’s heavyweights, Asif Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto, were unable to participate in the campaign. PML-N leader Maryam Nawaz went abroad, while her father Nawaz Sharif is already there. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was unable to campaign due to rules prohibiting him from doing so. His son, Hamza, currently seems disinterested in politics. The JUI-F’s Maulana Fazlur Rehman and leaders from the Awami National Party attended a few gatherings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where Khan faced strong opposition from these parties in Charsadda and Mardan, but still managed to win with margins of around 10,000 votes or more.

If the general elections were held by March, the PTI would likely win comfortably in the KP and some urban areas in the Punjab. However, winning in interior Sindh and Balochistan would be a tough ask. In the same vein, the party would likely win a good number of seats in the National Assembly and might be in a position to form a government, but two-thirds majority is unlikely.

However, if the elections are held between June and October 2023, the delay is likely to impact the PTI’s expectations. Khan’s popularity has been declining due to his flip-flops on several issues. The cases involving Tausha Khana and foreign funding have already damaged his reputation. Another case involving his alleged daughter, Tyrian White, is currently being heard. This may further dent his popularity.

On the other hand, PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif is making arrangements for his return to Pakistan. Maryam Nawaz will also be returning. The PPP is confident after winning two National Assembly constituencies against the PTI and doing well in the local government polls in Azad Kashmir. Bilawal and Aseefa Bhutto Zardari are preparing to go amongst the masses for the next elections. Maulana Fazlur Rehman is focusing on his areas of influence in KP and Balochistan, where various influential figures are joining his party, indicating that the JUI-F is strengthening its ranks to face the PTI and other parties. The Awami National Party (ANP) is also preparing lists of candidates and has started its election campaign.

The preparations and factors related to the upcoming general elections suggest that the next parliament will likely be a hung house, with some political foes turning into friends and forming coalition governments at the federal and provincial levels.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher