The second wave

It appears that nothing has changed with respect to Covid-19 treatment in Pakistan. The pandemic is still raging while people are apparently showing very little consideration, holding and attending public gatherings without wearing masks, and insisting on shaking hands – unwilling to pay heed to appeals for caution, preventive measures and physical distancing. The number of Covid-19 cases has started climbing with the advent of winter, and the number of nationwide deaths is on the rise.

“Will Pakistan be somewhat safer from the wrath of pandemic this time too?” is a question that many are asking.

“Despite Phase 3 clinical trials of Chinese vaccine Cansino, which are underway at several countries of the world including Pakistan, the vaccine against coronavirus infection would not be available for general public before summer or even autumn next year. There is also no effective antiviral drug production in sight over the next eight months so the Covid-19 situation is expected to be similar to what we experienced in the summer of this year. The number of cases is on the rise, mortality is also on the rise but whether this would lead towards a peak similar to the first wave in Pakistan or not, we don’t know yet”, says Dr Faisal Mehmood, an eminent infectious diseases expert and leading physician at Aga Khan University Hospital in Karachi.

Dr Faisal Mehmood maintains that the treatment options for Covid-19 are the same as they a few weeks after the pandemic. Precautionary and preventive measures are the only option people have in Pakistan, as they do elsewhere in the world.

“There is no 100-percent effective antiviral drug available so far for the treatment of coronavirus infection; and no such drug is in sight for the next several months. No vaccine would be available by the second or even third quarter of the next year [either]. So, all people have is to follow Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) they know already”, he advises.

Dr Rana Muhammad Safdar, another specialist of emerging infectious diseases and public health expert also believes that 2021 would be “as challenging as the ongoing year” despite the “development of a vaccine” or even “any effective treatment” for the infectious disease.

“Covid-19 is very much around; and it is on the attack as the temperatures are decreasing in Pakistan. This viral disease is not going away in the next year. So, we need to live with it; which means that we would have to live our lives by taking all possible preventive measures that are humanly possible”, Dr Safdar explains.

The situation at Covid-19 treatment centres from Karachi to Lahore and Peshawar to Quetta as well as in Islamabad has become concerning, officials say, adding that the number of critical patients has been on the rise for the last four weeks. In Karachi alone, around three hundred patients are under treatment at various health facilities, of which the condition of around 200 is serious. Many of them were on life support.

“The situation is getting serious again. With the increase in Covid-19 positivity rate, which has climbed to 5 percent from 1.5 in the August this year, number of serious patients is also on the rise at the health facilities. Today (on Wednesday) two healthcare workers lost their lives in the country; an 85-year-old professor and a doctor who was 26 years of age. So, the situation is not very different from days when we had started receiving a huge number of serious patients with limited number of beds and other facilities at our health centres”, says Prof Sohail Akhtar, a senior pulmonologist serving at Indus Hospital, Karachi.

Advising people to take the threat seriously and continue practicing preventive measures, Prof Sohail Akhtar says that the viral infection proved to be extremely lethal for people with co-morbidities, especially those suffering from hypertension, diabetes and other non-communicable diseases as the novel coronavirus affects everyone in different ways.

Given the circumstances, some health experts have started appealing for closures of educational institutions to protect children, and their parents and grandparents from contracting the disease. They say that although very few children have contracted Covid-19 in Pakistan as per official record, it was also a fact that very few children were screened for the coronavirus infection as the symptoms of Covid-19 among them differed from those in their parents or adults.

Claiming that children could carry the novel coronavirus asymptomatically like many adult asymptomatic patients, evident from the deaths of several pediatricians and child-specialists, who had likely contracted the disease from their patients, several pediatricians have advised the parents to switch to homeschooling for children of primary classes until the pandemic is over or an effective vaccine is available. The pediatricians say the children could bring the virus home and infect parents and grandparents.

“The number of Covid-19 cases has started rising in Pakistan and it is feared that we could have a second wave in the coming winter season. We have already stopped following the SOPs and our children are free to mingle in small and crowded classrooms. This can lead to serious repercussions for our elderly population,” says Prof Dr Jamil Akhtar, a Pakistan Pediatric Association leader.

“Prevent your children from contracting the infectious disease to stay safe yourself. There is absolutely no need to send children up to the age of 10 years to schools these days. They can be taught at home by their own parents. This can effectively lower the infection rate in our society”, Prof Jamil Akhtar suggests.

The writer is an investigative reporter, currently covering health, science, environment and water issues for The News International