Pervez Elahi changes political canvas

By Mayed Ali

LAHORE: Punjab Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi's decision to grab Prime Minister Imran Khan's offer of replacing Chief Minister Usman Buzdar has changed the political canvas in Punjab.

If and when the Punjab CM's resignation is formally accepted, the Punjab governor will ask any other member to prove his majority. In the present situation, Pervaiz Elahi will have to furnish the required number, 186 in the House of 371 members.

In case the PTI dissidents, the JKT-Aleem Khan combo, stays back with the opposition, it will be an uphill task for the Punjab Assembly speaker and the CM's candidate to manage the required number. Thus, the onus is on the dissidents in Punjab, who can not only influence the political map in Punjab, they can also stir things in Islamabad in the wake of the no-trust motion moved.

The PTI dissidents are in a position to call the shots in the Punjab Assembly after the Chaudhrys' decision. For instance, the JKT Group could field its candidate for the chief ministership with the support of the opposition. The same option is open for the Aleem Khan Group.

In the House of 371 members, the combined opposition, along with the dissidents, stands at around 200. The projected estimate being furnished by the opposition stood around 211 members when the PMLQ was on board. Now it is expected Elahi will run away with his ten, the opposition will still have nearly 200 members in its camp.

The opposition is believed to have the support of five independents, six PPP, one Rahe Haq Party and around over 30 JKT-Aleem Khan-combo members, assuming the dissidents would not eject. Add to this 160 members of the PMLN, and the toll hits 202. This number is far more than the required 186 members for defeating the PTI candidate for the CMship.

Any change in Punjab will also depend on the PMLN, which is in a position to call the shots in the process under any circumstances. That is, it can withdraw or proceed with the motion.

Sources in the opposition claim the Noes will have a clear majority in the House once the allies and defectors of the PTI – the JKT and Aleem Khan groups – joined hands for grabbing the CMship for itself or any probable allies.

The above-mentioned number may vary for the total strength of the PMLN is 165. Since five party MPAs have been flirting with the PTI government in Punjab for quite some time now, the parliamentary party is not counting on them at the moment.

Other than this, the combined opposition is not sure about Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, an independent. The status of the rest, that is, Ms Jugnu Mohsin, Qasim Langah, Bilal Asghar Warraich and Ahmad Ali Aulakh is not hard to predict. Ms Jugnu Mohsin and Qasim Langah are poised to join the PMLN formally once the dust settles down.