Challenges galore for Taliban regime: Absence of international legitimacy tops them all

ISLAMABAD: The absence of international legitimacy is one crucial issue among a myriad of monumental challenges that the Afghan Taliban will be confronted with as they struggle to knock together an inclusive government.

Several countries, including the United States and its allies that waged a 20-year long war against the Taliban, have not rejected outright recognizing the new government but there are many ifs and buts they have publicly articulated before taking such a decision. It will be an uphill task for the Taliban regime to meet these conditions.

For their part, the Taliban have made it known that they want to establish diplomatic relations even with the US. Apparently, they are aware of the dire implications for their government and country if they are treated as a pariah in the international arena. They will now have to prove to the global community that they have changed since their previous rule. Since their Aug 15 takeover of Kabul, the Taliban have clearly signalled that they are not the same old lot. They have so far committed relatively few atrocities and their two-week stay at the helm of affairs has not evoked the earlier fears about their style of working. They have been walking a tightrope and being cautious and careful as if they are aware of the international ramifications of radical words and actions. If they do not resort to unnecessary measures without which they can live with and keep in view international sensitivities, the key global players may give them a second chance and bury their apprehensions about them.

Initial indications are that Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran may be the first ones to recognize the Taliban dispensation. Islamabad has stated, and rightly so, that it will not go solo this time and would stand with other countries in according formal diplomatic recognition. Earlier in the nineties, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had turned out to be the only states that had recognized the Taliban regime. They had rescinded their recognition after 9/11.

After withdrawing its troops from Vietnam in 1975 following a prolonged war, the US had taken some two decades to recognize the Vietnamese government. Obviously, it is unclear at the moment how long Washington will take for such a diplomatic initiative in the case of the Taliban government. The wounds inflicted on both sides by the lingering war are too deep to heal in a short span of time. But despite that, the Taliban cooperated with the US in the evacuation of American civilians and troops and SIV (special immigration visa) holders and other foreigners from Afghanistan. During this tense interlude, they constantly remained in touch with each other so that the process is completed without any problem. The US kept mentioning the Taliban’s collaboration in this context.

Till the time the Taliban dispensation is recognized by the US and other powerful countries, their government will continue to suffer in various fields. The doors of the international financial institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank and others will remain closed on the new government. A country that has been reduced to rubble by the unabated war over the last 41 years, starting with the 1979 Soviet invasion, is in desperate need of billions of dollars for reconstruction and rehabilitation. An extremely wretched and poverty-stricken region lacking even negligible resources is in no position to foot the bill for such an unprecedented effort.

At present, the biggest test and challenge that the Taliban are faced with is to cobble together an inclusive government to achieve internal harmony. If they are successful in taking all the influential players on board and put together an inclusive setup, they will be sending a good message to the international community: that they do not want to monopolize power and are willing to share it with other political stakeholders including even those who had been against them or worked with the previous government. In case they fail to put together a wide-ranging government, there is a possibility that internal mayhem could eventually ensue, pitching different groups against the new setup.