NA-249 by-election result: Surprising change in vote-share of most political parties witnessed

ISLAMABAD: Few elections have witnessed such a phenomenal shift in the vote share of the leading contenders in such a short period of time as was seen in the NA-249 Karachi by-poll.

The fact that this has happened just 32 months after the 2018 polls has baffled many analysts. Despite this, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has remained consistent in the sense that its candidates had stood second in NA-249 in the 2018 general elections and secured the same position on April 29.

There is also another close similarity in the PML-N’s two defeats. Previously, it had lost with a difference of only 723 votes to the winning candidate. On April 29, its candidate has been edged out by a margin of 683 votes. On both occasions, the lead of the winner has been very narrow.

Most surprising is the extraordinary increase in the votes of one of the contenders despite the massive fall in turnout. On the other hand, the votes of other contesting aspirants apparently dropped in proportion to the decrease in voter participation. In 2018, the turnout was 39.58pc while it was only 21.6pc in the recent contest.

The most extraordinary jump in terms of vote share was recorded by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) that managed to get the first position in this constituency while it had stood on number six in 2018 -- last among the main contestants. Its nominee, Qadir Mandokhail bagged 16,156 votes or 22pc of the share on April 29 as against his 7,236 ballots or 6pc in 2018. In contrast, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), that had clinched victory in 2018 by getting 35,349 or 27pc of the total polled votes, stood fifth among the six important contenders on April 29 by receiving 8,922 ballots or 12pc of the vote. If the PPP witnessed a meteoric rise in NA-249, the PTI had an equally dramatic electoral fall.

The runner-up, the PML-N, bagged 15,473 votes or 21pc compared to its 34,626 ballots in 2018. Previously, PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif was its ticket holder for this seat.

According to the Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen), nearly 21.64 percent (73,471) of the registered voters exercised their right of franchise on April 29. The turnout was almost half of what it was in the 2018 general elections in which 131,190 votes were polled.

Despite being recently proscribed, the Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) maintained its standing this time. In 2018, it had stood at number three by bagging 23,981 votes while it managed to win 11,125 votes and the same third position this time.

However, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s vote went down significantly. Previously, its candidate had won 13,534 votes and gained the fourth slot among the main contenders. Now, its representative was pushed to the tail-end to occupy the sixth position with 7,511 ballots.

The Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) was non-existent electorally at least in NA-249 in 2018 because nothing is available on record. However, this time its representative, party chief and former Mayor Mustafa Kamal, clinched 9,227 votes and bagged the fourth spot.

In 2018, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) nominee had got 10,307 votes and the fifth position among the aspirants. This time, the MMA did not field any candidate. The Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) had announced its support to the PML-N candidate. Meanwhile, the Jamaat-e-Islami preferred to stay away from the scramble.

Regardless of the actual gains of the political parties on polling day, the opinion surveys conducted by different organisations ahead of the voting had proved to be quite misleading and flawed. They predicted that the PML-N and PTI would emerge as the leading combatants in the fight. None of them had put the PPP at number one or forecast its victory.

Prime Minister Imran Khan was named by voters in NA-249 constituency as their favourite political leader, maintaining an edge over former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. In two out of three polls, the premier was found to be the favourite while in the third survey, Nawaz Sharif was declared the most popular.

In the survey carried out by Ipsos, Imran Khan was the most popular leader in the constituency with 20pc of the respondents choosing him. Of the remaining, 16pc favoured Nawaz Sharif, 16pc Mustafa Kamal, 5pc Khadim Rizvi, 4pc Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, 4pc Maryam Nawaz, 3pc Maulana Fazlur Rehman, 3pc Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, 1pc Sirajul Haq, 1pc Asif Ali Zardari, and 1pc Shahbaz Sharif.

Of the respondents to the Ipsos survey, 15pc indicated that the PTI was their first choice, whereas 19pc of those responding to the Pulse Consultant survey chose PTI as their preferred party. Among the respondents to the Gallup Pakistan survey, however, 19pc chose the PML-N as their party of choice while 16pc seemed to opt for PTI, 11pc for MQM, 10pc for PPP, 8pc for PSP, 5pc for the banned TLP, 1pc for JUI-F and 1pc for independent candidates. However, 22pc of voters had said they had not decided whom to vote for.