More people to vote for PTI this time: Opinion polls predict PML-N victory in Daska by-polls

KARACHI: Three public survey companies, Gallup Pakistan, IPSOS and Plus Consultants, have predicted PML-N's victory in NA-75 Daska by-polls, while saying the PTI will give a tough time to the PML-N candidate.

The three survey companies have released their opinion polls based on a sample size of 1,000 pollsters. According to Gallup Survey, 36 percent of PML-N voters and 32 percent of PTI were found ready to vote for respective parties. According to the Plus Consultants, 52 percent PML-N supporters and 40 percent PTI supporters pledged their votes to each party in Daska by-polls. The PML-N voters clearly showed majority among the pollsters surveyed in Daska.

According to Gallup Pakistan, 36 percent PML-N voters and 32 per cent supporters of PTI were found ready to cast vote for their parties whom they had voted earlier. As many as four per cent expressed their preference for Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, 18 percent said they have not yet decided whom to cast their ballot for, while three percent outright refused to cast vote for any political party.

The IPSOS opinion poll found 45 percent pollsters expressed their preference for PML-N candidate, while 27 percent said they would cast their vote for the PTI, five percent said they would cast vote for Tehreek-e-Labbaik, 18 percent were found indecisive and 4 percent pledged not to vote for anyone. The Plus Consultants found 52 percent pollsters expressing their preference for PML-N candidate, while 40 percent said they would cast their vote for the PTI, two percent said they would cast vote for Tehreek-e-Labbaik, and one percent expressed their preference for PPP and four percent were indecisive about whom to support in the Daska by-polls, while four percent refused to vote for any political party.

Regarding the difference observed between the PTI and PML-N supporters in all the three opinion polls, the Gallup Survey found the difference to be of four per cent, while IPSOS found an 18 percent difference and Plus Consultants found the divide to be of 12 percent.

About the reduction in PML-N vote bank, all the three polling companies, Gallup Pakistan, IPSOS and Plus Consultants, found in the last two elections the PML-N showed significant reduction in its vote bank, whereas the PTI expanded its voter support base.

According to Gallup Pakistan Survey, in 2018 the PML-N supporters vouched their support to 49 per cent, PTI 34 percent, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan 4 percent. During the Feb 19 Daska by-polls, 42 percent expressed their intention to vote for the PML-N and an equal 42 percent expressed preference for PTI, while 7 percent expressed their liking for Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan.

According to IPSOS Survey, ahead of 2018 general election, 55 per cent pledged their support for the PML-N candidate, 32 percent expressed desire to cast vote for PTI, 5 percent for Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan and two percent cited their support for independents and one percent thought they would cast ballot for PPP. However, during the Feb 19, 2021 Daska by-polls, 51 percent expressed their intention to vote for PML-N, while 39 percent expressed preference for PTI, 6 percent vowed support for Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan and another six percent thought they would back the Independents.

However, Plus Consultants found an expansion in the PML-N vote preference. In 2018, the PML-N vote preference was shown by 52 percent, while 44 percent expressed the intention to support PTI, TLP managed to get avowals of three percent. But during the Feb 19, 2021 Daska by-polls, 54 percent evinced the desire to vote for PML-N candidate, 41 for PTI and three percent favoured TLP and one percent were found to prefer the PPP candidate.

All the three survey companies found a large chunk of pollsters expressing preference to cast vote in Daska by-polls on Feb 19, 2021. The Gallup found 82 percent voters readiness, IPSOS found 84 percent and Plus Consultants found 96 per cent voters prepared to take part in the by-election.

In the upcoming Daska by-election, the Plus Consultants found 88 per cent ready to take part in the election, 8 percent were found indecisive and four percent refused to take part in the election process.