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Thursday March 28, 2024

COVID-19 survey: 290,000 individuals in ICT affected by virus

Study in its area-wise distribution of disease finds rural union councils are more affected by the virus

By Shahina Maqbool
July 17, 2020
Study in its area-wise distribution of disease finds rural union councils of the capital are more affected by the virus. Photo: File

Islamabad: Preliminary analysis of a sero-epidemiological survey conducted in Islamabad to determine the extent of COVID-19 infection in the general population shows Covid-19 prevalence of 14.5 per 100 population.

As for area-wise distribution of the disease, rural union councils are more affected. Out of all Union Councils, Chattar was found to be most affected, followed by Union Councils Muhrian and Tarlai Khurd. Considering age, the most affected group was 41-50 years, followed by 31-40 years and 51-60 years. RT-PCR positivity rate was found to be 17%.

The results of the survey show that the calculated prevalence of Covid-19 in ICT is 14.5%, which translates to 290,000 individuals who have been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and have developed the immunoglobulins against the virus. This should be seen in the context that a vast majority of the individuals already exposed to the virus are asymptomatic and therefore escape detection. This was one of the objectives of this survey—to uncover the hidden/already exposed individuals in communities and to emphasize that these must not be taken as new cases/patients.

The cross-sectional survey was conducted between June 1 and June 25, 2020. The geographic scope of the survey was limited to the Islamabad Capital Territory ICT. Equal representation from the rural and urban areas was ensured.

Applying the stratified systematic random sampling using probability proportionate to size technique, a sample of 4,328 was calculated. A structured, pretested questionnaire was used to gather demographic, clinical, exposure, and risk factor data from the community. Blood samples were collected from each participant and tested for immunoglobulins against SARS-CoV-2 on Chemi-luminescence.

Throat/nasopharyngeal swabs were also collected from those having symptoms or contact history with a positive case for PCR testing. All samples were tested at the Virology laboratory at the National Institute of Health. An enhanced surveillance strategy that focuses on population-based methods is mandatory to understand the actual situation of Covid-19 and then to successfully control the pandemic. Asymptomatic/mild cases of Covid-19 are usually not picked up on routine surveillance and hinder estimation of true population infection rate. Therefore, the estimation of the true population infection rate is mandatory to effectively guide public health interventions. It was in this context and following WHO guidelines that a population-based, age-stratified, sero-epidemiological survey was conducted in Islamabad to determine the extent of infection in the general population, age-specific attack rates, and the fraction of asymptomatic or subclinical infections.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, ICT is divided into 44 administrative units: 12 urban and 32 rural; and as per the National Census 2017-18, the population is 2,006,572 (urban 1,014,825; 50.6% and rural 991,747; 49.4%).