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Friday March 29, 2024

Afghanistan: What is India up to?

By Jan Achakzai
March 09, 2020

As anti-Indian sentiments are on the rise in the region spreading from Bangladesh, Iran to Afghanistan now, New Delhi is carving up its new Afghan game plan to save its equities from being wiped out by the new geo-political tectonic shifts in West and South Asia.

Unprecedentedly, New Delhi’s anti-Muslims riots and India’s war of attrition in the IOK sparked huge protest in Afghanistan against India particularly in Herat, Kabul, and Kapisa besides other small towns and cities; these demonstrations marked a watershed moment in dwindling goodwill for India that it boasted of to have developed in the war-torn country through what it calls investment, a peanut though (e.g, over $3 billion) when compared to the US’s investment.

Largely unnoticed and least reported, the public burning of Indian flags in these protests was a tell-tale sign that India is increasingly viewed as part of the problem in Afghanistan’s complex political polarisation.

India’s open and immediate endorsement of Ashraf Ghani's government was taken as blatant interference even by the Afghan opposition groups. The opposition Leader Dr Abdullah Abdullah was furious over Delhi’s quick recognition of Ashraf Ghani’s fraudulent win as President of Afghanistan.

His spokesperson warned: “due to an undefined misunderstanding, we spent about 30 years of tension with our neighbour [Pakistan], we accused them of supporting the rebel [Taliban] and they [Pakistan] accused us of being too close to India. After the recent biased stance of Indian government on our elections, the puzzle is unraveled. I hope this unraveling can help us establish peace”.

On the other hand, short on legitimate support of the international community, Delhi’s proxy Afghan government of Ashraf Ghani is mum on what is going on in India so as not to lose Delhi’s backing at this critical stage when he is isolated the most and efforts are underway for intra-Afghan dialogue to eventually replace him. Yet, the Kabul regime is under tremendous pressure to go for some balancing act as anti-Indian feelings across Afghanistan both at masses and elite levels have swelled.

However, feeling hurt and cut loose of Afghan talks process, marginalised India will likely push back in new ways. Indian game plan in Afghanistan has an overarching goal to save its geopolitical interests and secure any future for its equities and investment in the post-Taliban/US deal Afghanistan.

To achieve this goal, a two pronged kinetic strategy is actively being pursued: first, recently ISIS fighters surrendering to Afghan government in droves and admission of many Afghan officers after interviewing and debriefing these fighters reinforced earlier suspicions of Indian footprints in propping and supporting local ISIS — which has no strategic and tactical coordination with the ISIS proper in Syria and Iraq; the attack on recent political gathering attended by Dr Abdullah Abdullah claimed by the same group leaving over 50 people killed, was well coordinated and timed to serve a strategic purpose — a message to the opposition camp not to entertain any idea of rapprochement with Pakistan vs India.

Secondly, already preparation by Indian strategic planners are underway to create anti-Taliban coalition comprising of potential disgruntled Tajik groups in the North and possibly use Tajikistan as base to raise and arm a new wave of insurgency as a hedge against a government probably formed as a result of post Intra-Afghan peace settlement. Another handy lever came in under the ruse of the Afghan Taliban: India has hugely invested in creating a proxy Taliban group of its own so if needed it can be used as a spoiler in the near future and ensure a foothold.

Once the Taliban’s resistance against the US forces gone, Delhi will not sit idle to witness the proxy landscape wrapped up into a gala land. Besides Afghanistan with a possible Afghan peace settlement, the Indian proxy game will see a fresh vigour in Pakistan, hence Islamabad should be better prepared for a new wave of proxy violence.

As non-kinetic options, India is already actively using social media to attack the US Taliban Deal and the role of Pakistan in attempting to bring Afghan conflict to a possible close.

Thousands of bolts and associated links with India’s deep state have amplified the anti-peace narrative across social landscape to provoke a backlash against these diplomatic moves. The Indian media is already playing its part to help a narrative for undercutting new geo-political alignment.

At diplomatic level, Delhi was working flat out to reach out to US power centres including the Congress, the State Department and other influential elements to lobby President Trump in order to scuttle the peace deal. But it was Russia which bluntly snubbed India against spoiling the talks on Afghanistan.

Additionally, It was aimed at India and its proxy Ashraf Ghani when President Trump sent a clear message the other day that Washington cannot be ever present in Afghanistan to protect their interests so they should allow “Doha Peace Deal” to work. “Countries have to take care of themselves,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “You can only hold someone’s hand for so long.” “We can’t be there for the next 20 years. We’ve been there for 20 years and we’ve been protecting the country but we can’t be there for the next — eventually they’re going to have to protect themselves,” he said.

However, the fact remains that India is facing a huge foreign policy disaster in the pursuit of its zero sum game in Afghanistan. After harsh criticism by Iran’s supreme leader, India is friendless. It’s last friend, i.e, Ashraf Ghani as a result of Intra-Afghan dialogue will most likely pave way for a new proposed inclusive coalition government and hence go back to the US to either join world bank consultancy or pick up a professorship.

India even with its latest deployment of non-diplomatic tools may not reverse the march of Afghanistan towards a new political order replacing the post 9/11 pro-Delhi dispensation. Going forward, the region has to watch out for the spoiling role of Delhi in Afghanistan.

(Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a politician from Balochistan, and ex-adviser to the Balochistan Government on media and strategic communication. He remained associated with BBC World Service. He is also Chairman of Centre for Geo-Politics & Balochistan)