Fata, smaller parties role in Senate chief, deputy polls vital

ISLAMABAD: The smaller parties and eight Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) members will hold the key in the election of the chairman and deputy chairman of the Senate in March.
The two major contenders – the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) – to these offices will emerge as the main seat holders with a difference of hardly a couple after election to half of the Senate on March 3.
However, as per careful calculations, the PPP may either come out as the single largest party with around 26 or will have almost the same tally as that of the PML-N. It will be a photo finish in terms of seats the two parties will secure.
As the smaller parties and Fata senators will end up holding the balance of power, they will decide whether the nominees of the PML-N or the PPP will win. After the fresh election, only one independent senator, Mohsin Leghari, will be left as his two colleagues having the similar non-party status, Hamayun Mandokhel and Akbar Magsi, both from Balochistan, have retired. Leghari’s term expires in 2018. He supports the PML-N.
However, on balance the ruling party is going to clinch the top Senate slot because almost all the smaller parties except the PML-Q will most likely support its representatives for either being its allies or maintaining better terms it compared to their ties with the PPP. The Fata senators traditionally vote for the government sponsored candidates.
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which will make a debut in the Senate with four or five seats, will neither support the PML-N nor the PPP.
Even if the PPP failed to get the office of the Senate Chairman, it will be a formidable opposition, better numerically than the National Assembly.
With the retirement of its 21 senators of a total of 40 members, the PPP is left with 19 lawmakers. It is likely to get around seven seats from Sindh. However, it stands wiped out from the Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan because of its dismal performance in the 2013 general elections.
On the other hand, the PML-N has now been left with eight senators after the retirement of an equal number of its members. It is going to win either all the eleven or at least ten seats from Punjab because of its unprecedented hold over this provincial assembly. This will hike its tally to 18 or 19 senators.
It is instructive to point out that the Senate seats were increased to 104 from 100 through a constitutional amendment by adding four senators from the minorities, one from each province, who were elected in the March 2012 election. After their election, a draw was held to decide the tenure, three or six years, of these four senators. Those elected from the KP and Balochistan got three-year term, which has now expired. Their replacements will be chosen by the KP and Balochistan assemblies. In view of the numerical scenario in these legislatures, the PTI will clinch the seat from the KP while either PML-N or any of its allies will get the seat from Balochistan.
The PML-N is going to win both the seats from Islamabad – one general and one special woman – which will be filled by the National Assembly. It is expected to get one seat from the KP and three seats from Balochistan. Thus its final tally is expected to be around 25 senators.
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which has six senators, now has three after the retirement of an equal number of members. Its strength will become almost the same after the next election as it is likely to bag at least three seats from Sindh. It is unexpected to go with the PPP and may be inclined to support the PML-N in the election of the Senate chairman.
After the retirement of half of its 12 senators, the Awami National Party (ANP) now has six lawmakers and will be unable to improve on its position in the new election as it has just five members in the KP assembly, who can’t elect even one senator. It is unclear which party – the PPP or PML-N – it will support in the election of the Senate chief, but at the end of the day it may put its weight behind the PML-N nominee.
The Balochistan National Party-Awami (BNP-A) is left with two senators after retirement of an equal number of members. It has stands no chance to increase its tally in the new election.
The Jamiat Ulemae Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) has three senators after retirement of a similar number of members. It may get a couple of senators from Balochistan and KP.
The sole senator of the National Party (NP) of Chief Minister Dr Abdul Malik, Hasil Bizenjo, stands retired. It may clinch a couple of seats from Balochistan in the fresh election. Same is the case with Mehmood Achakzai’s Pakhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party (PMAP), and its position will be the similar as that of the NP.
Of the five PML-Q senators, just one, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, has now retired. It has little or no chance to improve on its tally in the new election. However, a talk is on to get Shujaat Hussain elected in view of his conciliatory politics. If this is finally done, it will be a positive development.
A total of eleven seats are to be filled by each provincial assembly. They include seven general seats, two women seats and two technocrats’ seats. Besides, two senators – one woman seat and one general seat – from Islamabad are to be filled by the National Assembly. Then, there are four senators from Fata, who would be chosen by 12 members of the National Assembly and two minorities’ seats to be filled by the KP and Balochistan assemblies. This makes the total to 52 senators, which constitutes half of the 104-member Upper House.
In the Punjab Assembly, at least 53 members will elect one senator on general seat. Here, the PML-N has 312 members; the PTI has 29 lawmakers, and the PPP and the PML-Q have eight legislators each. The PTI’s boycott of the Punjab election has diminished any chance of victory of even a single candidate of the combined opposition.
In the Sindh Assembly, a minimum of 24 lawmakers are needed to elect one senator on general seat. The PPP is supported by 92 members; the MQM by 51 lawmakers; the PML-Functional by 11 legislators; and the PML-N by six members. The resignations of four PTI lawmakers have been accepted by the provincial speaker.
In the KP assembly, at least 17.7 members are required to elect one senator on general seat. The ruling PTI has 46 members, the JUI-F 16 lawmakers; the PML-N 14 legislators; the Jamaat-e-Islami and Qaumi Watan Party have eight lawmakers each; the ANP has five members and the Awami Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP), which is part of the ruling coalition, four lawmakers.
In the Balochistan Assembly, a minimum of 9.28 lawmakers are required to elect one senator on general seat. Here, the PML-N has 19 members; the NP 10 legislators; the PMAP 16 lawmakers; the JUI eight members; and the PML-Q six legislators.
The largest parties and their allies in the provincial assembles will win two technocrats’ seats and two women’s seats if they have sufficient votes to divide them in a way that their four candidates get the first highest and second highest votes. As part of give and take, the Jamaat-e-Islami may make a debut in the Senate after a very long time by winning a single seat from the KP.