High flood in Jhelum and Chenab in next 72 hours likely

ISLAMABAD: The Federal Flood Commission has said a peak of high-to-very-high flood level is expected in River Jhelum at Mangla (inflow) and high flood in River Chenab at Marala during the next 72 hours.

According to daily FFC report, all the main rivers including rivers Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej are flowing normal except for River Indus, which continues to flow in low flood at Guddu Barrage. The river flows and reservoir elevations indicates that Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs are at elevations of 1,524.40 feet and 1,235.60 feet respectively which are 25.60 feet and 6.40 feet below their respective maximum conservation levels of 1,550.00 feet and 1,242.00 feet.

The combined live storage capacity of Tarbela, Chashma and Mangla reservoirs is 12.067 MAF as compared to the last year’s 13.425 MAF.According to the Flood Forecasting Division Lahore Thursday, a monsoon low over northeastern Madhya Pradesh (India) has become insignificant and low pressure area over northwestern Bay of Bengal lies over Jharkand (India) whereas trough of westerly wave over the northern parts of Afghanistan lie over northeastern Afghanistan and adjoining areas. Seasonal low continues to prevail over northern Balochistan.

Moderate moist current from Bay of Bengal is penetrating the upper parts of the country up to 3,000 feet and likely to intensify.As predicted by the Flood Forecasting Division Lahore, scattered/thunderstorm rain with isolated heavy falls is expected over upper catchments of rivers Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej including Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur Divisions besidesssouthern Punjab, Sindh and northeastern Balochistan during the next 24 hours.

Isolated thunderstorm rain may also occur over the upper catchment of River Indus, northern & central Punjab (Sargodha, Gujranwala & Lahore divisions) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Peshawar, Kohat & DI Khan divisions).

Flash flood flows are expected in hill torrents of DG Khan Division during the same period.Scattered thunderstorm/ rain with isolated heavy falls and one or two very heavy falls are expected over the upper catchments of rivers Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej including Northern and northeastern Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the next 72 hours.

Heavy rainfall may generate flash flood flows in the local ‘nullahs’ (the tributaries of rivers Chenab & Ravi) and hill torrents of DG Khan Division.Significant rainfall events reported by the Flood Forecasting Division Lahore during the past 24 hours include Kot Addu 49mm, Rajanpur (Bhandu Wala) 44 mm, Badin 34 mm, Mithi 33 mm, Bahawalpur (airport) 16 mm and Lasbela 13 mm.