How Nawaz Sharif has revived his political fortune

PMLN’s supremo Nawaz Sharif has become Pakistan’s most relevant politician. He has managed to raise his graph not by magic, but by exploiting the failures and mistakes of the PTI government and the tensions in civil-military relations that eventually led to the fall of Imran Khan’s government.

Over the past four years, Nawaz Sharif has emerged from a political and moral low after the Panama verdict to become one of the most prominent political figures. Since he was forced out of office by the Supreme Court in July 2017 in the Panama Papers case, the 72-year-old leader has been targeted by the PTI government in several cases of alleged corruption.

Only through consistent work, sheer determination and, above all, skillful political maneuvering has he managed to improve his graph. Imran Khan has failed to live up to the expectations of the common man, sympathisers, fence-sitters and, most importantly the establishment by prioritising populist narratives over supporting the establishment’s evolving strategic regional posture during his tenure.

Despite opposition from his advisers, Nawaz Sharif launched a campaign through GT Road to rehabilitate his image. This occurred after his government was removed by the Supreme Court.

Moreover, his two frontal attacks — accusing the establishment in the “Vote ko Izzat Do” narrative for alleged political interference and introducing his firebrand daughter Maryam Nawaz — also helped. This strategy changed the political environment in his favour, so he brought his other lever, the mild-mannered Shahbaz Sharif, into play.

By creating entirely new realities, he put enormous pressure on the establishment: He retaliated with name-calling; he declared he would depose Imran Khan anytime. Finally, he joined with Asif Ali Zardari in a vote of no confidence and made his brother prime minister in March 2022.

For three and a half years, he watched the PTI suffer on many fronts and helped blunt its main lever — the support of establishment for Imran Khan. What proved to be the catalyst for the change of heart was Imran’s refusal to support dialogue with India and other international partners. This also involved the issues economy and the CM Usman Buzdar. The establishment had asked Imran for his support to no avail.

This refusal prompted Imran to force the establishment to create a fallback option, such as the Shahbaz Sharif card. The influential circles and Imran Khan thus embarked on a downward path of diminishing returns. The situation allowed Nawaz Sharif to cash in.

Nawaz Sharif upset the establishment when the latter only invested in the PTI, leaving the PMLN as the only option after the PTI was exhausted. Moreover, it was a sensible move to put forward Shahbaz Sharif as the second-best option to become prime minister when the PTI was no longer available.

Whatever one thinks of it, Nawaz Sharif has taken a dominant role in Pakistani politics, having gone from being a pariah to the most important figure.

With the support of his brother Shahbaz Sharif and the end of his self-imposed exile before the next parliamentary elections, he will achieve a lot. He knows how to restore his image and run an effective election campaign.

If he returns and leads the PMLN election campaign in 2023, he is likely to turn the tables in the next elections. The PMLN hints at his return in January 2023. Just as his recent actions have proven, he is a force to be reckoned with and should not be underestimated by his political opponent: Imran Khan.

Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a politician from Balochistan and a former advisor to GOB. He has remained affiliated with the BBC World Service. His Twitter handle is @Jan_Achakzai