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April 21, 2013

Majority favour PML-N in upcoming polls: survey

National

April 21, 2013

ISLAMABAD: A survey conducted by Gallup-Pakistan reveals that the first choice of 39% of the respondents in the May 11 general elections would be the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
As per the poll carried out in March this year, 18% said they would vote for the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), 7% for the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf, and 5% for the PML-Q.
A survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) in November last put the PML-N’s popularity at 32%, PTI at 18%, PPP at 14% and PML-Q at 2%. The Gallup Pakistan conducted the survey for an important western diplomatic mission and has not released its findings. However, a source provided its results to ‘The News’.
When contacted, Gallup Pakistan chief Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani said the results of the survey in question were not much different from the poll his organisation released some time back.
“The frontrunner remains the same as are the runners-up. Thus, there will be no major impact on the number of seats the political parties would bag,” he said. However, according to the latest survey, in Punjab, 54% of the respondents said they would vote for the PML-N, followed by 13% for the PPP, and 8% for the PTI and 7% for the PML-Q.
But the PML-N’s popularity decreased somewhat in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) to 35% while that of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) of Maulana Fazlur Rehman went up to 19%.
The findings said that the PML-N could grab a considerable vote share everywhere except for Sindh where only 8% of the respondents stated that they would vote for this party.
Eleven percent of the respondents in the KP said their first choice was to vote for the PTI. This is different from the November 2012 IRI poll which placed PTI’s popularity at 32%, followed by PML-N at 12% and JUI at 5%. In Sindh, the PPP dominated at 34%, followed by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) at 19%.
The PPP and PML-N continued to dominate the rural landscape. However, in the urban

areas, the MQM and PTI tend to poll more strongly. Thirteen percent and 10% of the urban population said they would vote the MQM and the PTI respectively.
The survey noted a very little variation among age groupings: only 9% of the under-30 population said they would vote for the PTI, and 37% said they would vote the PML-N.
However, the PTI’s popularity went up to 11% among respondents with high levels of education. But the PPP’s popularity increased to 25% in the poorest households while the PML-N remained consistent at 39%.
The second choice vote (which party would be your second choice) tended to be split between “will not vote” (24%) and PTI (21%). The former is up from last year’s Gallup-Pakistan poll, where only 15% said they will not vote if they couldn’t vote for their first choice party. This possibly indicates that party loyalties are unlikely to change dramatically in coming weeks, the survey said.
According to the IRI poll, in Punjab, the PML-N’s popularity stood at 49%, that of PTI at 19% and that of PPP at 8%. In Sindh, the PPP got 32%, MQM 16%, PTI 9%, and PML-N 8%. In KP, the PTI stood at 32%, PML-N at 12%, JUI-F 6%, PPP at 5% and Awami National Party at 3%. In Balochistan, the PPP led others by getting 18% followed by the PML-N with 13% and PTI with 8%.