Statistics do lie

By Mansoor Ahmad
September 29, 2022

LAHORE: The increasing discontent among the public is the consequence of flawed statistics computed by the state. With 20 percent of the population owning 60 percent of the resources, it is unfair to evaluate income of the remaining 80 percent on total resources.

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Let us suppose that the total resources are Rs200,000 and population is 1,000. The 20 percent population or 200 persons would own Rs120,000.

The remaining 180 persons would be left with Rs80,000 only. If you divide Rs120,000 among 200 persons, the average resource distribution would be Rs600 per person.

For the remaining 800 persons, the average resource per person would come to Rs100 per person. But if we take the total resources and divide it by 1,000 the average resource distribution would be Rs200 per person.

Look at the distortion in income caused this way. The income of lower strata of society doubles when we divide the resources equally among the total population.

This creates a mirage of prosperity for the planners. They based their planning based on this mirage. This is the reason that experts now plead for a realistic evaluation of GDP.

Under the current system, they have the idea of real total income in the country. That is good but they should also evaluate the GDP of 20 percent richest strata of society, 60 percent middle class and 20 percent lowest income groups in the country.

They could then chalk out a plan to bring the lowest income groups to a higher income level.

We all know even without a scientific study that the poorest stratum of the population lacks education, healthcare, and basic infrastructure, including proper sanitation.

These people would need more funds compared with the more affluent population. All new schools, colleges and healthcare units could then be set up in areas where the poorest of poor live. Most infrastructure funding must be diverted towards the slums where these poor live.

The current policy of strengthening infrastructure, education, and health facilities in posh or well-to-do localities must be suspended for a few years. Let the poor enjoy better facilities even if their incomes remain stagnant.

Their education level and health would improve with time and so will their incomes. With the current calculation of GDP, the planners do not get the actual picture of miseries faced by the poor.

Officially our per capita income is $1,250 which depicts an average income of Rs291,250 per year. In other words, an average family of 6.5 persons earns Rs1.893 million. It is far from reality.

In fact, this average income is almost equivalent to the 12 months minimum wage of the country. The wage earner generally is the sole bread earner for the whole family of 6.5 people.

Last four years have been very tough for the poor. Inflation ranged from 22 percent to 11 percent in the first 44 months of PTI and 13 to 44 percent in the last four months.

Consumer price index of the country states that the average Pakistani consumes 35 percent of his income on food. Does it stand true today?

The 20 percent poorest segment of the population cannot afford food even after spending 100 percent of their income and depend on charity.

The 20 percent richest segment might not be spending even one percent of their income on food (including the expensive food of their pets). We should correct our stats for meaningful planning.

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