Capital suggestion
The TTP has a political goal. The TTP has war objectives. And the TTP has a military strategy to achieve its war objectives. The TTP’s political goal is to establish political control over the 770,875 square kilometres of land we call Pakistan. And the TTP’s military strategy to achieve its political goal is unconventional: fedayeen attacks, bomb blasts and suicide attacks.
The TTP has no battle tanks, no armoured personnel carriers, no infantry fighting vehicles, no self-propelled artillery, no combat aircraft, no unmanned aerial vehicles, no submarines and no frigates. The TTP’s signature weapon is fear – spread fear throughout society, mutilate governance and bring the state down via by a thousand cuts.
The TTP’s message from Charsadda is: Our manpower network is intact. Our financial pipeline is intact (India). Our logistics management chain is intact. Our communications network is intact. And we have a sanctuary (Afghanistan).
The message from the state of Pakistan is: We have a National Action Plan. Yes, we have established military courts and, yes, we have hung a few hundred convicted terrorists. The progress on all other elements of the National Action Plan is as follows: National Counter Terrorism Authority: nothing done. Choking financing: nothing done. Proscribed organisations: nothing done. Regulation of madressahs: nothing done. Fata reforms: nothing done. Dismantling the communications network: nothing done. Militancy in Punjab: nothing done. Reforming the criminal justice system: nothing done.
For the record, during 2003-16, the number of terrorists/insurgents killed during various operations stands at 32,503. For the record, after getting 32,503 killed the enemy still managed to give us Bacha Khan University and Army Public School. Now we have military courts that will hang a few hundred more. Then what? What’s the plan?
Textbook counter-insurgency has three components: Clear-Hold-Build; clearing of terrorists by the army followed by the civilian government ‘holding’ on to the cleared areas and then towards fulfilling the social contract between the state and its citizens – dispensation of justice and provision of electricity, gas and water.
Five thousand three hundred and thirty seven square kilometres of Swat was cleared by the army but the 37th Mechanized Infantry Division and the 19th Infantry Division are still there. Six thousand six hundred and nineteen square kilometres of South Waziristan was cleared by the army but the 9th Infantry Division of XI Corps is still there. Four thousand seven hundred and seven square miles of North Waziristan have almost been cleared by the 7th Infantry Division.
The TTP is dependent on three factors – a geographical safe haven (Afghanistan), a financial pipeline (India) and an ideological support base (Pakistan). All three intact. Fighting the TTP has to be a civil-military undertaking; 33 percent military and 66 percent civil. Fighting the TTP is a two-theatre war – the battlefield and the ideological front. We may be winning on the battlefield but we haven’t even started the war on the ideological front.
In the meanwhile, Islamabad’s priorities are: Karachi-Lahore Motorway Rs700 billion; Rawalpindi-Islamabad Metrobus Rs44 billion; Operation Zarb-e-Azb Rs15 billion; National Action Plan Rs0.
The final message from the TTP: You are all sitting ducks. The final message from the state of Pakistan: All we will do is quack.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.
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