The victory of PML-N candidate Shaista Pervaiz Malik in the recent Lahore by-election was not surprising. The only surprise was that no big fuss was made about rigging and fraud. And it all happened without using Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs).
Even the Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen) in its report found just minor irregularities in the NA-133 Lahore by-poll. According to Fafen observers, the election remained largely peaceful and orderly with no major incident affecting the voting and counting processes.
We still remember the controversial NA-75 Daska by-polls and the controversy around the NA-249 Karachi by-poll. The losing parties refused to accept the results and alleged rigging. But in NA-133 none of this happened.
The PML-N is celebrating its fourth straight victory in this constituency, having won all four elections since 2008. Since 1990, it lost just one election in this constituency and that was in 2002. So, this constituency is a PML-N stronghold.
The PPP is celebrating its 32,313 votes, the highest votes polled for a PPP candidate in this constituency since 1997. This constituency was a PPP stronghold from 1970 to 1988. But the PML-N started to dominate this constituency in 1990.
The PPP ran a strong campaign this time and succeeded in making inroads into some poor and working-class areas. The party performed well in many women polling stations and in minority Christian areas.
Although the PPP failed to cause an upset in the election, it did succeed in significantly increasing its votes. It bagged just 5,585 votes in the 2018 general elections from this constituency. So its celebration is not surprising at all.
Surprisingly, the ruling PTI also seems happy without having contested the election. The PTI was ousted from the electoral race after its candidate and the covering candidate had their nomination papers rejected. The disqualification of the PTI’s candidate was a blow to the party and naturally put them out of contention.
The PTI seems happy about the low turnout and considers it a rejection of both PPP and PTI by the voters of this constituency. The turnout was very low at the polling stations where the PTI had performed better in the 2018 general elections.
The absence of a PTI candidate also made this election campaign boring and lackluster, without the traditional flair. The PPP, though, did add some spirit and enthusiasm into the campaign with an energetic effort.
The turnout might have been higher if a PTI candidate was contesting the election. The TLP was also missing from the race; the party had emerged as the third largest political party in the constituency in the 2018 general elections.
While the PTI’s absence did contribute to the low turnout, there are other factors which also played their part. Just take the example of the NA-249 Karachi by-poll. The turnout was low at around 18 percent, despite the fact that the PTI was contesting the elections. That too failed to generate enthusiasm in the electorate and the turnout generally remained low in the cities during the by-polls.
Take another example of NA-125 (then NA-120) in the 2017 by-poll in Lahore – the home constituency of former PM Nawaz Sharif. Despite a media hype and a highly polarised political situation at that time, the turnout was much lower compared to the general elections.
In the NA-133 by-poll, both the PPP and the PML-N failed to mobilise big chunks of voters in the constituency. The alienation of young voters should be a matter of serious concern for mainstream parties. Unfortunately, none of the major political parties are addressing the concerns and aspirations of young people. Nor are they focusing on the issues faced by the working and lower middle-class youth.
The rising cost of education, unemployment and fewer economic opportunities are issues of real concern for youth people. Around 75,000 new voters have been added to electoral rolls in this constituency since the 2018 general elections. The overwhelming majority of new voters are young people, and they prefer to stay away from elections.
Discontentment towards electoral politics is rising among young people. The highly educated professional layers of urban upper and middle layers of young people enthusiastically supported the PTI in the 2018 general elections. The PTI considers young middle-class voters as their strong support base. And, while the PTI might still be popular among some sections of young people, it seems that this support is on the decline. The party has failed to bring the change young people wanted to see. It will be a big challenge for the PTI to mobilise this important segment of its support in the next general elections.
Political parties need to understand that ideology, party organisation and cadres still matter in politics. Power politics driven solely by money and power will inevitably alienate large sections of voters. And allegations of vote-buying are not a good sign for democracy and the electoral process. Political parties must take a clear stand against corrupt practices and use of excessive money in elections.
The writer is a freelance journalist.