Tracking the marches...reading the tea leaves

Islamabad diary
11:47: Situation very confused. There is Zaman Park where the PTI is revving up for its march. And there is Model Town which is under siege. Will Imran Khan start his march without relieving his allies in Model Town? If he does it may well prove the ultimate death of his own march. The centre of gravity of today’s events lies around the Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT) headquarters. If Tahirul Qadri is left to his own fate, doesn’t Imran lose moral leadership?
11:53: A police officer stationed close to PAT HQ is quoted on television as saying that they too have come to embrace shahadat…meaning they’ll take on the PAT head-on. Sounds pretty alarming and if this is not empty boasting doesn’t augur well for what lies ahead.
12:00: Government strategy is clear: divide and win. Do the oppositionists see this or not? It looks very much as if Imran is playing a safe game: wanting to make an omelette without breaking any eggs. PTI women looking very enthusiastic on TV, but do they see the bigger picture?
12:09: Flip a channel and see President Mamnoon Hussain droning on. PM Sharif at the same ceremony looking grim. He’s been looking grim these past few days. Quickly change channels: only so much of Mamnoon one can take. He gives a whole new meaning to the concept of charisma.
12:15: Sitting in the Avari and trying to make sense of what is happening, can’t help thinking that if it wasn’t for that man-in-uniform, Pervez Musharraf, we wouldn’t have all these TV channels and all this live reporting. Our democrats would never have taken the risk…too unsure of themselves. Musharraf was one dictator at ease before the cameras.
Asking lawyers, politicians and journalists to show gratitude is unrealistic…they are made of sterner stuff. But even as journalists go on and on about press freedom and their glorious, and largely mythical, struggle to secure it, they might spare a thought

for the benefactor who gave the electronic media their present freedom…and media celebs their fat salaries.
12:30: PTI march still delayed. Call up a PTI woman activist to find out what’s going on. She says they are thinking of first going to Model Town. Really? Do they have that much sense? Wonders will never cease. But this is all up in the air…nothing definite.
12:46: The minutes ticking away and still no sign of movement. Sheikh Rashid, conspirator extraordinary and God’s gift to TV channels, was tete-a-tete with Imran in Zaman Park. Talking of the Minhaj siege?
12:50: A TV channel reporting that Imran has moved out of Zaman Park…the long march begins. They will be going down the Mall and past Data Darbar and onwards across the Ravi.
12:58: But what’s this? A ticker saying that police are pulling back from the Minhaj Secretariat. Is the siege being lifted? Here’s Qadri addressing the media, announcing the start of his Inquilabi march. Mustafa Khar standing just behind him. Qadri explaining the meaning of his revolution: emancipation of the poor. Switches to English for the benefit of the foreign media. Catch the words egalitarianism and the Quaid-e-Azam…eradicating poverty, basic necessities, etc. Although a great speaker always comes prepared…even now has a sheaf of papers before him. “Every homeless person will be given a house…” and more on the same lines. Atta, daal, cheeni, ghee…will be provided at half price. Electricity and gas at half price for the poor. Free healthcare, free education.
Leader of the Majlis Wahdat-ul-Muslimeen, Muhammad Amin Shaheedi, I also see in the picture. I’ve heard him speak…what a powerful orator. Qadri still in English…basic political reforms to ensure fair elections and accountability. Big point about our revolution: we will oppose martial law. We are for democracy and only democracy. Eradication of terrorism…end of Takfiriat (killing in the name of Islam). Zero tolerance for extremism. Kisi ko Khuda nahi banene den ge ke kon Musalman hai aur kon nahi. And devolution of power…strengthening district governments.
Agrees with Wahdat-ul-Muslimeen – he repeats the point – that there will be an end to Takfiriat. Assef Ahmed Ali whispers into his ear: Qadri speaks about full protection to the minorities. Last point: emancipation of women…equality of sex. Our revolution will be totally peaceful. We want a Pakistan like the Republic of Medina of the Prophet (pbuh).
Sahibzada Hamid Raza of the Sunni Ittehad Council says something in his ear. Questions pour out but Qadri says no questions. Prays for the success of their endeavours. Prays for the success of the armed forces. He sure knows how to play the media.
13:20: The zuhr azaan sounds. It’s going to be a long day. Divide and win seems not to be winning after all. The Model Town siege being lifted. Why couldn’t they have done this before? The PML-N missing the beat completely…everything from its side coming just a bit too late. They could have removed the containers yesterday and won some brownie points for this. At this late hour it will be read as another sign of weakness.
13:38: Sheikh-ul-Islam moving out of his house. A channel saying that there wasn’t all that big a crowd with Imran Khan as he moved out of Zaman Park. TV reporting very confusing at this point…better to switch it off.
13:51: Look out from my hotel window. What is this? The Mall should have been blocked by now but it isn’t. However, the main jaloos is still way behind.
14:08: Wait: a ticker quoting Governor Punjab, Ch Muhammad Sarwar, as saying that Qadri too will be given a free passage. Qadri has phoned Ch Sarwar to thank him (perhaps for any behind-the-scenes role he may have played). The tension cracks: better sense seeming to prevail. Altaf Hussain and the Sindh governor Ishratul Abad have had a hand in this and the Punjab governor too. The threat of anything untoward happening recedes. Why couldn’t the Khadim-e-Aala have relied on Ch Sarwar earlier?
14:28: I am already past my deadline. So I better stop trying to be a reporter. One thing is clear. The container strategy has been given up and both Imran and Qadri are not to be restricted as they move beyond Lahore towards Islamabad. The question now is whether this whole thing will fizzle out or whether our crisis is still there? The threat of violence has receded but other things remain in place.
The government has made too many mistakes and butted into too many walls it should have avoided. Is everything over for it or does it still have resilience and tenacity enough to sit out the challenge? The system has been badly shaken and the government looks rattled. But the outcome of all these events is far from clear. We have an exciting few days ahead of us.
Tailpiece: 15:04: The PTI jaloos now approaches and the other lane of the Mall leading to the Lahore High Court and the Town Hall is getting blocked. Will the government’s nerves hold? Will the marchers stick to their guns? The government is in a quandary and knows it. And its leading lights look glum. But where exactly where all this come to rest? The fates at work here. In many respects this looks like the revenge of the general: with what satisfaction must he be puffing on his cigar?
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