The concerted mandate

Side-effect
The writer is a poet and author based in Islamabad.
What one expected last week was a largely split mandate in the National Assembly where two parties, the PPP and the PML-N, would get 70 plus seats and the PTI would get more than 40 for sure and may go up to 60.
I could also see another scenario emerging where the PPP would have gained a couple of seats more than the PML-N if it retained its support in southern Punjab, and had its electable candidates win in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with the PTI making a big dent in the PML-N mandate in north and central Punjab.
However, most people thought that the PML-N would form the next government and a part of me agreed with that assertion, but perhaps I was influenced too much by the PTI surge shown in our media and because of being surrounded by the social class that particularly supported the PTI.
Also, claims of friends from the PPP who hail from southern Punjab proved erroneous. I remember writing last week that I can be proven wrong only if the electorate in Punjab behaves differently from how we have perceived it to behave on May 11. And I have been proven wrong because the electorate in Punjab behaved differently from how we thought it would.
One thing is sure, though, Imran Khan’s tsunami may not have swept across the plains of Punjab, but it did inundate our television screens and the PPP got Punjab’s arithmetic completely wrong.
As a nation, while there are things to be rejoiced, there are things to be careful about in what we see happening today on our political landscape. Let me begin with things that make one feel optimistic.
Coming out in large numbers on the day of the polls and increasing the voter turnout to about 62 percent – an increase of more than 50 percent from the last elections – the people of Pakistan have reposed their trust in democracy, in the power of the vote, in our evolving political system and, most importantly, in our

politicians.
The large voter turnout is a clear message to those on the fringes who reject the democratic process and advocate for a caliphate or a benevolent dictatorship. Some people, including a few political leaders, clamour for change and profess that it can be brought about overnight, corruption can end in 90 days, the economy can be rebuilt in six months, and power cuts can completely end in one year.
Either they are naïve or intentionally misleading the electorate. ‘Change’ is not an event. It is a process. Some of us always maintained that nothing will be fixed in one electoral cycle and the people of Pakistan will have to believe in the democratic process to vote in and vote out the people they like and dislike. On May 11, they have proved that they believe in the process.
Moreover, they braved the threats of violence and bomb blasts. Terror attacks were less of a danger in Punjab and Islamabad but the voters in Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa risked their lives to come out and vote. Even if one disagrees with their choice, they have freely exercised their right to vote.
Being an ardent critic of the politics of the PTI – and being relieved in some ways that they did not win the polls to form the federal government – does not inhibit me from saying that in the PTI we can see another party that has a vote bank in all provinces like the PPP. Winning seats in the elections and retaining that support over the years, though, are two different ball games. But, in itself, a party being able to cultivate a vote bank across Pakistan is a good sign for the federation.
Let us come to the things that people need to be careful about in the times to come. Two right-wing parties have captured most people’s imagination in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A good number of seats have been won by the JUI-F and the Jamaat-e-Islami in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well. The PPP and the ANP have been completely routed in the two provinces. The reasons are many – not being able to campaign due to the bloody violence inflicted upon them being one and inefficient governance marred by a breakdown of law and order in the last five years being the other. Add to these an unfavourable media for five years.
In the National Assembly, if Imran Khan becomes the leader of the opposition, it will perhaps be the first time in our history that both the leaders of the house and of the opposition come from centre-right parties and from the same city. Coming from the same city is not something desirable for the federation.
The PPP and the MQM, the two other parties that are likely to sit in the opposition (likely, not necessarily), may get someone else nominated as the leader of the opposition. In any case, the space for protective legislation and policymaking for women and minorities will shrink.
The liberal space in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly is almost gone, whether the PTI is able to form the government with the JI and others or the PML-N is able to cobble together a coalition with the JUI-F and the JI.
The provincial government has a strategic role to play from Peshawar when the endgame begins in Afghanistan with the Nato-Isaf troop withdrawal next year. It will have to be watched as to how much space is conceded to the Taliban and whether we have rightly made an estimate of what suits Pakistani state and society and what doesn’t. If the PTI leads the coalition in Peshawar, will they be able to work closely with Nawaz Sharif’s government in Islamabad?
Coming to Punjab, the assembly and the government will be run by a single party with unbridled powers. How the sectarian outfits, which already seem to have a field day in the province, will be dealt with is an urgent point to be raised with the PML-N. Some of its senior leaders have not enjoyed a good reputation on this count.
The Christian minority in Punjab will become more vulnerable if the PML-N does not set the course right. It needs to make substantial changes to its outlook and politics rather than just doling out money after lives are lost and irreparable damage is done.
Another province where Nawaz Sharif will enjoy considerable influence is Balochistan. This is perhaps the last chance for the government in Islamabad to bring not just peace but just and acceptable solutions to the problems faced by the province.
Sindh will be run by the PPP with or without the MQM. It is time for the party to consider doing things differently. If Seraiki Wasaib can go against the party, Sindh’s electorate may soon start thinking in a different way as well.
The PPP has no option left but to engage in some serious soul-searching. Rather than investing time and energy in wheeling-dealing with other politicos, the PPP needs to sticks to its political ideology and organise itself across Pakistan. That is the only way things will start taking a different turn.
If the party shows a firm commitment to the rights of women, minorities and the downtrodden and starts taking the urban populace seriously after taking cognisance of the demographic shift that has taken place, reaches out to the urban youth and most of all delivers in Sindh, it can make a comeback.
The MQM, it seems, has little desire to change its traditional electioneering tactics. This, however, will not continue forever.
Email: harris.khaliquegmail.com