Lies, damn lies and statistics. It was Voltaire I believe who once defined the degrees of falsehood. But this is also said that something you can’t measure, you can’t manage either. In any modern economy and society, numbers and mathematical units of measurement are essential to understand and quantify problems and then formulate policies accordingly. But these sets of numbers and statistics, gathered over regular or irregular intervals and compared with each other over time, also reflect on performances of those who are responsible to solve these problems. Therefore, we see the fudging of numbers by institutions of the state in many countries with varying degrees of severity. In Pakistan, these institutions like the Planning Commission, Federal Bureau of Statistics, other federal and provincial outfits including the ones gathering information within the ministry and departments of finance, dutifully do their bit to make the policies of any incumbent government look better and more effective than they actually are. It is done by both playing with technique through making assumptions and employing formulae which would in turn throw out favourable results or by using simply incorrect and fake numbers.
If public servants show reluctance in toeing the government’s line, they are shown the door. Remember our senior economist Dr Pervaiz Tahir who was removed from being the chief economist of the planning commission in 2007 by the then prime minister Shaukat Aziz when he had refused to change poverty figures. Besides public servants, another interesting fact is that one would find the same independent consultants funded by organisations like the World Bank, ADB, ILO or other UN bodies helping these government institutions by generating statistical reports and qualitative analysis on poverty, unemployment, impact of inflation, social protection, etc. You see the same happening today. But who has to get confirmation by referring to numbers endorsed by
the government or the economic pundits for rising poverty and unemployment, food inflation at a somewhat consistent 15 per cent and the energy inflation at 25 per cent.
When we enter 2011, the gravest threat we face is the debilitating state of our economy. Undoubtedly, we are at war. It has its own ramifications and makes it difficult, if not impossible, for us to invite healthy foreign investment. But the real onus lies on the elite of Pakistan – those who have captured it from day one and continue to squeeze the juice out of its people and resources. We have the feudal who neither wants to be modernised because it threatens her/his hold on the land nor wants to be taxed on income from its produce; the urban Mafioso of a trader and businessman who evades taxation but also indents, imports and smuggles rather than investing in any industry, big or small; the corrupt and incompetent bureaucracy devoid of any sense of responsibility and public service; and, a military mindset that continues to see itself as the only force ensuring the safety of the country without realising that no nukes and stockpiles of missiles could save the Soviet Union from crumbling under economic strain. Poor, unhappy, unsafe and unemployed people find it hard to survive, let alone dominate others.
It is the responsibility of the PPP-led government to bring us out of this economic quagmire. It will not be the confused PML-N, opportunistic JUI-F or the fickle MQM who would bring them down. It will be the management of economy. They need to spell out a long-term vision besides showing the ability to document the economy and tax the rich. Priority for 2011.
The writer is an Islamabad-based poet, political analyst and advisor on public policy. Email: harris .khaliquegmail.com