LONDON: Nicola Sturgeon is set to win a majority at the Scottish Parliament election on Thursday, according to a new poll.
The survey for The Herald by BMG Research suggests the SNP is set to win 68 seats while other projections show the Alba Party will take two seats, once the regional distribution of its support is taken into account.
Meanwhile, the poll suggests the Greens will pick up nine seats – meaning Holyrood would have 79 pro-independence MSPs out of 129.Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG, told the newspaper: “There is no question that the SNP will be returned as the largest party in Holyrood next week, but their prospect of a majority remains on a knife-edge.
“With little movement since our last poll in mid-March, there is no real evidence that any party has gathered significant momentum ahead of voters casting their ballots next week.
“Using a uniform seat calculator – a general guide of estimating how votes might translate into seats – our numbers suggest that the SNP could win a small majority of seven, thanks to a close to clean sweep of constituencies.”
BMG polled 1,023 Scots aged 16 or over between April 27 and 30.It found the SNP will take a 28-point lead in the Holyrood constituency vote on 49 per cent, Labour on 21 per cent, the Scottish Conservatives on 19 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent.
It said the SNP is on 37 per cent on the regional list, the Tories are on 22 per cent, Labour on 17 per cent, the Lib Dems on 8 per cent, the Greens on 9 per cent, Alba on 4 per cent, and Reform UK on 1 per cent.
The company’s previous survey for The Herald, carried out between March 16 and 19, found the SNP would win 66 seats, the Tories 27, Labour 20, the Greens eight, and the Lib Dems eight.
Meanwhile, a separate poll for Scotland on Sunday found 34 per cent of voters believe the SNP has handled education well, with 39 per cent believing it was handled badly, giving the SNP a net rating of minus five.
The SNP was also found to have performed badly on crime at minus four, with Brexit at minus three and housing policy at minus one.However, voters overall were pleased with the SNP’s record in government, according to the poll by Savanta ComRes.
A total of 1,001 Scots aged 16 or over were interviewed between April 23 and 27 for the survey.Alex Salmond said: “An SNP regional list vote is a wasted vote across Scotland and they are set to win zero list seats on Thursday. It is now vital that to ensure a big Supermajority, with independence supporters giving the SNP their constituency vote but backing Alba on the list. Today’s polls show that the independence-supporting MSPs could potentially reach 80 or even more.”