centers are formed by different insurgent groups in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the main threat lies in the strong support base of the organisation within the urban areas of Pakistan. We have witnessed how people from all over the world have joined the group in Iraq and Syria. A major proportion of their membership consists of the educated youth of Europe, Africa, Pakistan, Central Asia and the US. Different intelligence agencies have reported that fighters from about 80 different nationalities have come under the flag of the militant organisation.
We have seen pro-Isil wall-chalking in different cities of Pakistan. The Safoora bus attack in May 2015 too raised questions regarding the emergence of Isil in Pakistan. According to sources in the security forces, the militants wanted to claim the attack as an act by Isil and formally announce the beginning of its operations in Pakistan.
The lack of socio-economic justice and political instability in Pakistan are significant factors which could be exploited by Isil and help them gain ground in this region.
Furthermore, the most fundamental factor that needs to be contained is the polarisation between secular and religious groups in Pakistan. More importantly, it instigates an irrational reaction by militant forces, thus creating a vicious cycle. This polarisation must be contained immediately. A suppression of religious ideas also happened in Syria and eventually led to a state of conflict. Unfortunately in Pakistan, this polarisation is providing a breeding ground for the ideology of Isil to expand.
According to media reports, several Pakistanis have joined Isil in the Middle East. A few militants have even made claims about the arrival of Isil representatives from the Middle East into the tribal areas of Pakistan. This could prove to be a serious threat to the security of Pakistan. Alongside the military operations in Pakistan, an effective political strategy is also necessary which must be devised with the help of religious scholars and other stakeholders.
Nevertheless, Pakistan must play an active role in Middle Eastern politics. Considering Pakistan’s place on the global stage, we should try to initiate a political process in Iraq and Syria. Iraq and Syria have already lost their original boundaries and chances of their restoration are very low. More importantly, the recent political crisis in Turkey and the official trip of Pakistan’s COAS is vital to take into account in these circumstances, as some analysts have expressed fears that the re-mapping of Turkish borders might also be underway.
Pakistan has the capacity to control the expanding fire in the Muslim world, but it has to remain neutral. The recent statement of supporting Russian moves against Isil must be revisited. Pakistan must strongly discourage the involvement of global state actors in the Muslim world and should promote a political peace process in which illegitimate entities like Isil are brought in for a political dialogue.
The augmenting blind aggression by the Western world in Syria and the retaliation in Paris will further increase the support base for Isil and anti-West sentiments among Muslims who are already suffering from massive military operations. The international community has to initiate peace talks for the Syrian crisis immediately; otherwise the conflict will intensify and move towards a point of no return.
The writer is a research analyst.
Twitter: Ali_Jaswal