continuing and inventories at almost record levels of more than 3.0 billion barrels, triple the normal rate.
OPEC member Venezuela and some international economic reports have warned that the oil price could slide to the range of $20-$30 a barrel from around $42 now if output is not trimmed.
Abu-Dahesh said Gulf states are betting on developments indicating a balanced oil market next year after OPEC´s strategy knocked out some high-cost production, such as some US shale oil.
OPEC secretary general Abdullah el-Badri said in October he was confident the oil market will pick up in 2016 due to a growth in demand and a drop in non-OPEC output.
He said the glut was caused by a six million bpd increase from non-OPEC members over the past five years and that this has started to contract.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told an energy conference in Bahrain on November 19 that, despite oversupply, the world still needs 5.0 million bpd of new output, four million of that due to natural decline.
Bassam Fattouh, director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told the same conference the market rebalancing process has started but the effect on prices will be slow.
The International Energy Agency said this month that growth in demand for crude is set to slow next year as the allure of cheap oil fades.
The IEA expects demand to grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2016, down from 1.8 million bpd this year.
Harami believes oil prices will remain low for at least the next two years until the global economy picks up.
By then, falls in high-cost oil production will make way for OPEC crude, Harami said.
Massive cuts in oil investments will also help slow production, he said.
Saudi Arabia said this month that more than $200 billion worth of energy projects worldwide had been cancelled this year and more cancellations were expected in 2016.
Despite economic woes and major revenue losses due to low oil prices, the Gulf states have a huge fiscal cushion to rely on.
"Gulf states can bear the downturn for another three years enough for their oil policy to achieve targets," Abu-Dahesh said.