Today, Pakistan has an installed power generation capacity of 24,375MW connected to the national grid system. Hydropower generation at 7,116MW installed capacity constitutes less than 30 percent of the cumulative capacity using various energy resources. The utilisation of hydropower resources however is far from being realised, as it is only 17 percent of the optimal potential. The hydropower resources at national level have been estimated as 59,796MW (theoretical or gross), out of which 41,045MW is considered technically and economically exploitable.
Currently, Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) alone has 6,902MW hydropower installed capacity. Hydropower generation during the past five years has remained almost static at 6,555MW (2010), 6,645MW (2011), 6,730MW (2012), and 6,947MW (2013). In the year 2013, hydropower generation capacity of 217MW was added and 169MW in 2014, mostly by Wapda, bringing the total to 7,116MW. However, it is interesting to observe that energy generated by Wapda in 2014 (31,656GWh, which was 31.33 percent of the total energy generated at national level) was less than that generated in 2011 (31,685GWh or 29.86 percent of total energy generated).
At present, a number of hydropower projects are being implemented, in public sector as well as the private sector, though the pace of work of all the projects is very slow. The on-going Neelum Jhelum project of 969MW capacity, one of the strategic projects of Wapda, has been long-delayed besides resulting in cost over-runs. It has now been rescheduled for commissioning by November 2016. Construction of the Fourth Tarbela Extension is in progress, which would add 1,410MW to the national grid by June 2017 as per contract, but the project is already behind the schedule. Construction of green-field project Golen Gol (106MW) in Chitral is in advanced stage, scheduled for completion originally by 2009, now rescheduled to June 2016 at a revised cost of over Rs28 billion. Likewise, construction work on the first stage (19MW) of Kurram Tangi Dam (of total 83MW) in North Waziristan has been delayed due to security concerns, whereas work on Keyal Khwar (128MW) hydropower project in Kohistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has recently been initiated by Wapda.
On its commissioning in May 2013 the IPP was expected to be the precursor for the development of hydropower by the IPPs on a large scale. This however did not happen, as so far no other hydropower project could achieve commercial operations, though many IPP projects remained in the pipeline for a long time. Interestingly, Laraib Group obtained Letter of Interest (LOI) for another project in the name Alamgir Power in May 2007 for developing Azad-Pattan project of 222MW. While the feasibility study was approved in December 2011 for a reviewed and up-dated project of 640MW, there has been no physical progress achieved so far.
There are three modes of hydropower project development ie processing of (i) site where feasibility study and detailed engineering and design have been completed, (ii) site where only the feasibility study has been prepared, and (iii) raw site where no feasibility study has been conducted. All the projects are to be developed on Build, Operate, Own and Transfer (BOOT) basis for a term of 30 years. Under the Policy for Power Generation Projects 2002, the government had approved various hydropower projects of cumulative capacity, including Gulpur 100MW, Kotli 150MW, Karot 720MW and Kohala 600/740MW hydropower projects, all located in AJK.
In September 2005, another seven projects of raw sites were allowed for development, including Harighel Hydro (53MW) in AJK by Axor Canada/Descon, project Shermain (115MW) in Dir KP by Global Resources USA, Patrind (130MW) in Mansehra KP by Emirates Trading/Al-Ghurair, and Madian in Swat KP (148MW) by Ghulam Faruque Group, Mahl (245MW) in AJK by CWE Investment/Three Gorges Corp, China, Karrang (458MW) in Kohistan KP by Micro Middle East Co, UAE and Suki Kinari (655MW) in Mansehra by SK Hydro. Later, LOIs were issued to developers/investors for hydropower projects in KP namely Kaigah 548MW in Kohistan, Kalam-Asrit 197MW in Swat, Asrit-Kedam 215MW in Swat, Gabral Kalam 137MW in Swat, and projects in AJK such as Chakothi 139MW, Rajdhani 132MW and Athmuqam 350MW.
Sadly, only one project, Patrind hydropower, now of reviewed and revised capacity of 147MW, is under construction, which has been taken over by Korea Water Resources (K-Water) as the main developer.
The project being constructed as Star Hydro Power at a cost of $362 million is scheduled for commissioning by April 2017. Other projects, besides Gulpur, which are at various stages of implementation include Sehra 130MW, Karrot 720MW, Suki Kinari 840MW (revised), Azad-Pattan 640MW, Chakothi Hattian 500MW and Kohala 1,100MW (revised) hydropower. These projects are scheduled for completion during the period 2019-2023. On the other hand, two major hydropower projects, Suki Kinari and Karot, have now been incorporated under the China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC) programme.
Hydropower is the largest source of renewable power generation worldwide, and is recognised as dependable, most cost-efficient in electricity generation, and clean resource of energy. Economic lifetime of a hydropower station is between 40 to 80 years. Hydropower technology is well proven, with efficiency rates up to 90 percent. Annual operation and maintenance (O&M) cost is nominal---about one to four percent of capital cost depending on the size and location of power station as well as the source of plant machinery. Nonetheless, development of hydropower projects poses numerous technical and economic challenges to the investor and developer. The projects are site-specific, sites located in far flung isolated and high altitude areas lacking basic infrastructural facilities and connectivity to transmission network.
Somehow, the successive governments have not given priority to promoting exploitation of vast hydropower resources by the private sector in particular. The federal government has recently launched the Power Generation Policy 2015, also covering a policy framework and package of incentives for private sector hydropower generation projects to provide an enabling environment to the investor. To make the policy successful for implementation, however, strong political will is required, which seems to be lacking at present.
The writer is Chairman of the Institution of Engineers, Pakistan