Morran, deputy editor at the Consumerist, an independent consumer advocacy site, predicted no major changes to overall sales in 2015."There hasn´t been a drastic change in the jobs picture. There hasn´t been a huge increase in wages," he said.
Much bigger than any change in overall sales will be the role of online commerce this holiday shopping season, which kicks off in force the day after Thanksgiving, known as "Black Friday."
The focus on e-commerce means stores are no longer emphasizing opening up on Thanksgiving night and are stretching out the season of holiday promotions. Amazon has had "Black Friday" specials since November 1. "People have become a lot more savvy and realize that a lot more of these Black Friday doorbusters are just junk," Morran said.
Online has been embraced much heartily than before by retail giants like Wal-Mart stores, which this year for the first time will make the more than 90 percent of its "Black Friday" discounts available online.
Fewer in-store specials reduces the chance of dangerous crowds that have sometimes led to serious injury, including the 2008 fatality of one Walmart worker stampeded to death.
Walmart will also offer online-only specials on Thanksgiving Day of high-definition television, Star Wars gaming headsets and other goodies "so customers can shop while the turkey is in the oven," the company said in a November 12 announcement of its Black Friday plans.
Morran sees the current moves by retailers as part of a transition period that will see most of the Black Friday focus online within five years. That will be more convenient for consumers and enables retailers to keep fewer stores at maximum staffing level.
"Consumers aren´t doing badly and stores are learning," Morran said.
Walmart´s smaller big-box rival Target is also playing up online shopping, as well as a "clicks and mortar" approach to shopping that, for example, lets customers pick up online orders curbside "without ever leaving the car," the company said.
Target is also offering free shipping at for online orders between November 1 and December 25.
But these efforts are also adding to the pressure on retail industry profits, said Efraim Levy, an analyst at S&P Capital IQ who follows retailers.
Companies must develop apps and other technologies, build warehousing centers for online deliveries and manage a new trove of electronic data. In Target´s case, offering unlimited free shipping on orders as low as $5 means "you´re losing money," Levy said.