– of degrading and dismantling the Islamic State? Very little because unlike Al-Qaeda – but like the Taliban – the IS is an indigenous phenomenon with a large area under its control. If pushed out from the cities through ground operations, they can regroup in the country side. That too is a distant goal because after the long conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan there is little desire left to engage in open-ended ground operations. Air war can only achieve limited objectives.
No amount of rhetoric by Hollande, Cameron, Putin and a ‘lame-duck’ Obama, or the feuding contestants for the 2016 US presidential election, is going to change the ground realities in Iraq or Syria. Neither Baghdad nor Damascus has the resources or the will to re-conquer the largely Sunni dominated areas that are now under IS control. A de-facto partition of the two countries seems like the logical solution somewhat like the Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq created under US sponsorship.
It is hard for western powers like France and Britain to concede that the boundaries drawn by them in Iraq and Syria have been undone in the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq and the west-sponsored rebellion against the Assad regime in Syria. The example of an autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq is tempting for Sunnis in Iraq and Syria. But the situation is complicated by the IS desire to advance towards Baghdad and Damascus, a scenario frowned upon equally by Shia Iran, Sunni kingdoms and emirates, Jewish Israel, Christian Europe and America, and orthodox Russia.
The Islamic State must re-evaluate its options and decide whether it can afford to have so many enemies at the same time or if it can come up with a strategy that may allow it to hold on to its core area of influence in northern Syria and north western Iraq. The present standoff is too dangerous to continue as it can result in greater hostilities and destruction.
Pope Francis referred to the recent IS attacks as part of a piecemeal third world war. He had also spoken nearly a year ago of a piecemeal third world war wrought by high levels of crime, massacres and destruction across the world. The Pope’s remarks are more about the levels of death and destruction through conflicts and the stranglehold of organised crime.
Events of recent weeks, however, point to the need to pull Syria out of the quagmire it has sunk into in the last four years with signs of further turmoil and destruction. The world’s most powerful nations have failed to find a solution, resulting in 300,000 deaths and millions of Syrians rendered homeless. The IS has only aggravated their pitiful situation.
The United Nations, which was created to cope with the vital issues of global peace and security, lies like a discarded tool in a barn. The victors of WWII who dominate the UN today have slowly turned the world body into a mechanism for pushing national agendas. Even if the UN role was to be revived it may be too late for Syria and Iraq, which are broken and devastated beyond repair.
Is the IS on self-destruct mode? Olivier Roy, the well-known French expert on jihadist groups is of the view that the IS is its own worst enemy. Writing in the New York Times, Roy, after giving a full list of IS foes, concludes that some of its regional enemies may not be keen on wiping out the IS for their desire to spite their enemies (who are among the IS’ enemies)!
The new message coming from the west and Russia is: it is no longer a matter of containing the IS, we must defeat it. There is a wide margin between defeating and wiping out. We may, therefore, be looking at a future that sees the IS on the run rather than entrenched but that still does not restore the fractured states of Iraq and Syria.
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