The global migration crisis

The US ‘war on terror’ triggered a new age of ‘global conflict’. The unfolding events in the Middle Eastern chapter of the war on terror are now entering a decisive phase of a deadly conflict.
The main turning point in this story was the Arab Spring. The war in Syria and Iraq that was initially started as civil unrest has now spread almost into all of the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Horns of Africa. The vested interests and direct involvement of global actors in this war have affected the entire political scenario of the Muslim world.
The serious response of the international community, mainly from the western world, over the recent refugee crisis is highly appreciable but unfortunately is not the solution to the crisis. They are treating the symptoms instead of the actual root of the whole crises. If this conflict keeps going at the same pace, then it’s quite inevitable that the wave of refugees will continue to increase in the coming months.
The recent economic boom in Iran, as a result of a nuclear deal, and the recent intervention by Russia to support the regime forces in Syria can further intensify the conflict. Iran and Russia are trying every possible option to strengthen Assad, while Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the US are backing the rebel forces to overthrow the current Syrian regime.
Apart from these stakeholders, the most horrible outcome of the US war on terror, which is now making inroads into the grassroots of the international political order, is Isis.
Isis is now successfully gaining ground in Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The group is battling the Kurds, Iran-backed militias, the US air force, Al-Nusra, Turkey and now Russia. Moreover, they are fighting a proxy war with Al-Qaeda in different parts of the Middle East. The multiple fighting fronts of Isis and the augmenting state of unrest in the Middle East show that more massive displacements are to be

expected in the region. On the other hand, the African turmoil is also getting worse with the successful expansion of Boko Haram and Al-Shabab.
The migration of people on a massive scale due to relentless conflict situations can change the entire demographics of the world. Refugee camps have always served as recruitment centres for insurgents. Up till now it has been estimated that more than 200,000 people were killed in the Syrian war, four million people have become refugees and 7.6 million people IDPs. Apparently, there is no possibility in the near future that these refugees will be able to move back to their homes and normal lives once again.
The difficulties that refugees face in Europe put them in a state of uncertainty. Around 6,000 refugees have been arriving on European shores per day. This has created a gigantic crisis in Europe. The UN high commissioner for refugees has criticised the handling of the refugees by European countries in this regard. “When in 1956, 200,000 Hungarians fled to Austria and Yugoslavia, not only were people properly received, but a relocation programme was quickly put into place and 140,000 people were relocated to other countries. What was possible then should be possible now”.
The mishandling of the refugees can have enormous repercussions for global peace and security. The refugees are already filled with grievances and hatred for the west, as they perceive the western world to be responsible for the disorder in the Arab world. As far as the Arab world is concerned, only Lebanon and Jordon are managing about two million refugees whereas the six rich Persian Gulf countries have done absolutely nothing for the refugees.
This ignorant behaviour will certainly generate hostility among the refugees. After World War II, this is the largest refugee movement, and groups like Isis will definitely try to exploit their sentiments to launch expected assaults against the Persian Gulf countries and the western world.
The grand migration of Syrian refugees would most probably change the entire demographical landscape of international politics. The main point of apprehension is that there is no effort at mitigating the real root cause of the crisis.
In the recent UN General Assembly session, instead of considering a peace strategy for the Middle Eastern crisis, international players sought an opportunity to dominate and control the strategically pivotal Middle Eastern region. There was no major opposition to the Russian entanglement in Syria at the General Assembly and elsewhere.
President Putin claimed that Russian arms to Syria would “prevent ‘even bigger’ refugee flow to Europe.” As per Timothy Snyder in Time, though, the “Russian policy in Syria is aimed toward the transformation of the country into a refugee factory. In Ukraine, Russian intervention generated two million refugees among precisely the people Moscow claimed it was protecting. In Syria, it has been the Assad regime, which Russia has now supported, that has been responsible for the vast majority of the refugees”.
Furthermore, in the ongoing US presidential campaign, the policy proposals on the Middle East being presented by people like Donald Trump shows that the situation could get more worse. On the contrary, a reasonable candidate like Senator Rand Paul, who is trying to resolve these critical issues through non-violent political means, is not getting any major appraisal in the presidential campaign.
It is time the international community used dialogue and political settlement – before it gets too late. The fire in Syria and Iraq could move to other parts of the world if it is not contained on an urgent basis.
The international community has to devise a strategy in which transnational actors or illegitimate entities like Isis are engaged in some sort of political dialogue. Otherwise in the current multi-polar world groups like Isis may very soon emerge as global political forces.
The refugee crisis is significant because these refugees would certainly end up joining such groups if they are not treated properly. Therefore, the massive displacement of the refugees needs to be contained through ceasefire and political dialogue, in order to resolve the expanding fire in the Middle East.
The writer is a research analyst.
Twitter: Ali_Jaswal