LAHORE: The government is in fire fighting mode, but people are sceptical about its ability to tackle the pandemic prudently. The main reason for this is the poor performance of this regime during the pre-pandemic period of 18 months, particularly its mishandling of the economy.
The pandemic would leave more scars on this nation compared with other economies, where sanity in economic affairs prevailed immediately before the coronavirus impact. People are worried because the state could not handle the economy properly during normal times.
It failed even to curb corruption in its 20-month rule. In fact, corruption has slightly increased if we go through the report of Transparency International.
This does not seem to be the right time to criticise the government on its immediate past performance when it is fighting a war against the pandemic. But this has become necessary because it never sought cooperation of the opposition before pandemic or rather ridiculed them though media and social media.
It did not heed to sane suggestions. Now that we are fighting perhaps one of the most severe human health and economic crisis, the government is doing it alone.
What is the use of an elected parliament when you tend to ignore and ridicule elected members that represent almost 45 percent of the population? They had no representation earlier in the economic policy deliberation and even now in distribution of aid to the affected people.
This is not democracy, at least not a parliamentary democracy. Critics would look the other way if the state was handling the crisis prudently.
It is riding on the humanitarian aid that has been pouring in from all corners of the world not only to Pakistan but to all other weak economies. In other economies, the governments are in constant touch with all political forces and aligning their help to tackle the crisis.
In Pakistan, the federal government is doing it alone. How can we trust it in a crisis when it failed to deliver when the going was normal and the world trade was growing?
In order to judge the capability of this government, let us look back at the macroeconomic indicators of Pakistan when this government assumed power. All the statistics are official, dating back to August 2018 to September 2018.
When this government assumed power the central bank policy rate was 7.5 percent. Until before the pandemic, it reached 13.25 percent and is still standing at nine percent.
Inflation at that time was 5.8 percent that increased to 13 percent and now stands at 11-12 percent. Dollar rate was Rs123.78 that finally settled at Rs154.5 in February 2020 and has now reached Rs161.
Foreign loans as on September 2018 according to State Bank of Pakistan were $96.505 billion, while this regime added $14 billion during its first 18 months’ rule. The loans have increased much more during the past 30 days.
Large scale manufacturing growth was 5.6 percent and it turned negative 3.06 percent till February 2020. We can expect a steep fall in growth in March and more in months ahead.
Foreign exchange reserves with the central bank were $10.22 billion in August 2018 and are still at the same level despite very huge foreign borrowing.
Hot money did take the reserves in a month before the pandemic to a higher level. But the money evaporated as quickly as it came on the first sign of crisis.
With this pathetic performance, one wonders how anyone can trust this regime to take Pakistan out of the crisis safely. The current crisis needs close cooperation of all political forces.
It is indeed strange that the political forces in opposition are willing to cooperate with the government during this crisis, but the ruling elite is keeping them at an arm’s length. It seems that the ruling party thinks of the crisis as an opportunity to win back its lost popularity through government charity for the needy persons.
This though unethical could win some votes for the ruling party, but given its past performance the chances are that it will annoy more people than it could please.
The party is rich in rhetoric and very poor in delivery.
It may end up more bruised after the pandemic is over. A balanced approach would be to include the opposition in planning and distribution works.
Chances of successfully implementing the subsidy programmes would be higher if joint efforts are made. In case of failure, both the ruling elite and the opposition would share the blame.