Cricketer Imran Khan always enjoyed pressure, but certainly not politician and Prime Minister Khan, who sees some foul play and an attempt to destabilise his government by pushing his allies, who have suddenly created an unpleasant situation for the federal and the Punjab governments.
Political developments in the post-extension scenario have somewhat shaken the otherwise confident prime minister, as cracks have started appearing in the coalition government in Centre and in Punjab as well as within Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Though there’s no immediate threat of any vote of no-confidence or an in-house change, all is certainly not well as his allies are not happy. Much now depends on the events likely to unfold in the next few weeks.
The only advantage which the PM has at the moment is the division within the opposition’s rank and file. That division had led to the failure of Azadi march of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F). Otherwise, it might have turned into an anti-government movement. It has certainly ease pressure on the premier, but if he will be able to meet tough demands of his allies and the earlier commitments he had made with them, both orally and in writing.
Whether it’s a coincident or something is really cooking up: all government allies, except for Janoobi Punjab Mahaz (JPM), have publicly expressed their concerns over non-implementation of an accord, signed with them in the near past. While Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) Minister Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui has already quit the federal cabinet, Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) Minister Tariq Cheema, on instructions from the Chaudhrys of Gujrat did not attend the last cabinet meeting in protest.
Besides, the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), which is also part of the federal government, has also submitted their latest demands to Imran’s close aides, Federal Minister Pervaiz Khattak and Jahangir Tareen, but withheld decision to quit the cabinet.
Balochistan National Party (BNP-Mengal) led by former chief minister Akhtar Mengal, who also met the government delegation, believes that Centre looked non-serious towards implementing their demands. However, like other allies, he also delayed decision to quit the coalition.
There is also a lobby within the ruling party, which feared that there is something wrong somewhere as some of the allies are not in a position to taken decision on their own and one has to see problems with their ‘handlers.’
In the post-2018 election, the critics believe that had these allies not been managed, it would not have been possible for Imran Khan to form the government at Centre and in Punjab in particular.
So, where the problem lies in otherwise ideal civil and military relationship because the last weeks developments have certainly created a perception that all is not well in Islamabad.
The PM was not happy over the manner in which two of his archrivals, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and former president Asif Ali Zardari got bail and the former travelled abroad. In his latest counter strategy, he now wants them back in jail and he decided to give more free hand to the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) in this regard.
In his repeated commitment, he told his colleagues that he would not give any kind of NRO (a deal) to the two families and would also looked into the matters as how they are getting relief.
In a related development, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), while giving a clean chit to yet another PTI leader and Special Assistant to Prime Minister Zulfi Bukhari, decided to open some new cases against top leadership of the two opposition parties.
Thus, the tussle is clearly on, and the political environment, which had improved during the National Assembly and the Senate session for smooth sailing of the extension bill and amendments to the Services Act, 2019, can once again get tense.
The government has not only decided to oppose any application of Maryam Nawaz to go abroad but also expressed reservations over the recent medical reports of Nawaz Sharif.
Both in Sindh and Punjab, the premier is also facing issues within the party as well, which has sharpened with the passage of time. For the first time, at least six ruling MNAs from Karachi conveyed their concerns to the PM, while three of them even accused Karachi-based Federal Minister for Port and Shipping Ali Zaidi in the National Assembly, and put him in an embarrassing position.
While support to replace Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar with former Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi of PML-Q is gaining momentum and considered as a better choice to counter the PML-N, it would not be easy for the PM as well as strong party leaders like Jahangir Tareen and more importantly for Shah Mehmood and Governor Chaudhry Sarwar.
PM’s recent decision to give more powers to the chief secretary not to send summaries directly to the chief minister has caused concerns within the Buzdar camp. Thus the CS has become a defecto CM, directly taking orders from Centre.
In Sindh, the MQM and the GDA are PTI’s allies and both are not happy. Though the GDA consists of small parties, their three seats could make a difference if things go from bad to worse. They only want release of development funds from Centre. Things are far more complicated in the case of MQM-Pakistan as some of its demands had been opposed by the powerful quarters, and the party might have to settle with getting funds and projects.
The MQM-P wants fresh census in Sindh, particularly in Karachi and Hyderabad, handing over of their sector and unit offices, recovering of missing persons and early disposal of cases pending against top leaders and hundreds of workers, so that they could get more political space.
In the past, the former DG Rangers had opposed opening of the sector and units offices, as the law-enforcers fear it could allow the MQM-P to revive the old organisational structure. The Muttahida has refuted these charges and asked the prime minister and others concerned to stop suspecting the party.
It will be interesting to watch political developments in the next one month, also some non-political happenings, as the government faces multiple challenges in 2020.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.
Twitter: MazharAbbasGEO