BAGHDAD: Scarred by two decades of conflict, Iraq finds itself caught in the middle of a US-Iranian tug-of-war, fearing it could pay the price of any confrontation between its two main allies.
Analysts say third parties may seek to exploit the latest spike in tensions between Tehran and Washington to spark a showdown that serves their own interests. Iraq “pays a disproportionate tax on Iranian-American tensions and (has) an unenviable frontline position in any future conflict between the two,” said Fanar Haddad, an Iraq expert at the National University of Singapore.
During the three-year battle to oust the Islamic State group from Iraqi cities, powerful Iran-backed Shiite militias on the ground effectively fought on the same side as US-led coalition warplanes in the skies. But since Iraq declared victory over the jihadists in December 2017, relations between Washington and Tehran have deteriorated sharply.
In May last year, US President Donald Trump pulled out of a landmark 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and later re-instated tough sanctions. This April, Washington dubbed the Revolutionary Guard Corps a “foreign terrorist organisation”, prompting Iran to designate US troops across the region as “terrorists”. Tensions escalated this month, with Washington deploying a carrier group and B-52 bombers to the Gulf over alleged, unspecified Iranian “threats”.
The Trump administration last week ordered non-essential diplomatic staff out of Iraq, alleging Iran-backed armed groups posed an “imminent” threat. On Sunday, a rocket was fired into the “Green Zone” of Baghdad that houses government offices and embassies, including the US mission. There has been no claim of responsibility.
For Iraqi political analyst Essam al-Fili, the rocket attack was a sign that some sides want to pull Tehran and Washington into a confrontation in Shiite-majority Iraq. “There are those who want to fight Iran with other people’s weapons, and those who want to fight the US with other people’s weapons,” he said. But he added that Iran has “so far favoured restraint in Iraq, a country which is vulnerable on the security front”.
Several groups in the Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary coalition that battled IS denied any link to the rocket attack, with Assaib Ahl al-Haq chief Qais al-Khazali pointing a finger at “Israeli interests”.