becomes ineffective, there’s little else to rely on in the absence of national or popular legitimacy. Except perhaps for his immediate loyalists.
But even those loyalists Damascus or from among the Alawite sect, who’ve become dependent on the regime, will soon conclude that it’s wiser to sacrifice Assad in order to save the capital, the community and the country, than sacrifice them all in a desperate attempt to save a dictatorship.
The same applies to Assad’s regional and international supporters notably, Iran and Russia. They will conclude that only by sacrificing Assad and his immediate clique of war criminals, could they save face and salvage their regional role and influence.
US secretary of State John Kerry carried a similar message to Putin last week. He reportedly interrupted the Russian president’s vacation in Sochi to push for the revival of the principles of the Geneva-1 talks on Syria in order to avoid the collapse of the state along with the regime.
These principles focus on negotiations between elements of the regime (minus Assad & co) and the coalition of the opposition parties (minus Isil and Jabhat al-Nusra) over power sharing and national reconciliation.
It’s far from ideal, but under the circumstances, it’s the only way to salvage what’s left of the country.
Cynicism bordering on criminality: The US and Russia agree on the need to maintain the Syrian state structure at any cost in order to avoid total uncontrollable chaos with a spill-over effect on the rest of the region.
But they disagree on when or how Assad goes. The Obama administration wants him out at the beginning of the reconciliation process, while Russia insists that he goes out at the end of the process, if at all.
Meanwhile, ISIL is growing and countless more Syrians are dying in vain.
And as usual, Russia is playing chess with the US. Before it compromises on Syria, it wants something in return on Ukraine, including lifting the sanctions. And that doesn’t seem to be forthcoming unless Russia makes a similar goodwill gesture.
But there might still be some change in Russia’s position because of the festering disagreement with Iran. While Moscow and Tehran have long supported Assad, Russia suspects Iran cares less about the survival of Syria than the survival of its Syrian allies.
But Iran has a strategic calculation of its own, and it’s not very different from those of Russia. Tehran considers Iraq its Ukraine and could eventually sacrifice Assad for greater US concessions there.
Last week’s US green light for the Iranian supported Popular Mobilisation militias to fight ISIL in Ramadi reflects this new reality. It’s the type of US-Iran coordination that could pave the way for strategic bartering wherein Iran sacrifices Damascus to gain more influence in Baghdad.
After Assad: Having said all this, there’s only one sane way forward for Syria: negotiations and reconciliation to end the old Assad dictatorship and the building of a new inclusive Syria.
Excerpted from: ‘Bashar al-Assad: The beginning of the end?
Courtesy: Aljazeera.com