The next big move in oil prices lies in the hands of three unpredictable strongmen: US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and day-to-day ruler, Mohammed bin Salman.
All three lead countries whose oil industries are now capable of producing at least 11m barrels a day each, putting them in an elite group of nations who are responsible for more than a third of global supply combined, or more than the entire Opec cartel.
But that is largely where the similarities end. All three have different motivations for what happens next in an oil market that has already spent much of 2018 being roiled by international politics. How they play their cards will determine what happens next.
Saudi Arabia wants higher oil prices following a 25 per cent slump in crude since early October to below $64 a barrel, and has indicated it is willing to cut crude production to achieve its aim.
Its oil-dependent budget requires roughly $80 a barrel just to break even, let alone to fund the grand plans of the crown prince — widely known as MBS — to modernise and transform its economy. But the murder of US-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi has severely weakened its position internationally and could now limit its options in the oil market.
The US, Saudi Arabia’s main western ally, wants exactly the opposite outcome for oil prices, with Mr Trump relentlessly banging the drum for crude to go lower, heaping pressure on Riyadh to keep prices down.
He has made clear that lower oil prices are an economic priority for his administration, to the point of soft-pedalling the reintroduction of sanctions against Iran’s energy industry this month, granting limited waivers to many of its main customers.
That is despite pushing Saudi Arabia this summer to raise output in the first place to help replace Iran’s barrels, one of a series of events that has left most analysts predicting the oil market will now be oversupplied in 2019. If Saudi Arabia feels aggrieved by this, Mr Trump probably does not care.
Lower prices at the pump are a fillip to his base and a clear economic policy win he can claim, regardless of the fact that most economists believe that the shale boom — which has turned the US back into a big producer within a decade — means weaker oil is no longer a straightforward positive for the macro US economy.
Mr Trump may have little direct control over the short-term actions of the myriad private producers that make up the US oil industry, but with US output growing even faster than anticipated he may feel they can weather a lower price. The fact the oil industry is largely centred in traditionally Republican states such as Texas and North Dakota means he does not need to spend too long worrying about their votes.
Having unsubtly indicated he is prepared to overlook the murder of Khashoggi, Mr Trump should hold the whip hand over Riyadh at this stage.
Many may feel it weakens Washington’s standing in the world, but cheap oil and continued arms purchases are the price tag Mr Trump has, in tweet after tweet, attached to the alliance. Saudi Arabia has so far stuck to its guns on plans to reduce oil output, but the pressure it is facing from the US may prove too much.
Russia, under Mr Putin, sits somewhere in between, but as ever will have one eye on the broader ramifications for Moscow’s position in the world.
Few doubt Russia would like slightly higher prices to help an economy still dominated by natural resources. But Moscow is less dependent than Riyadh on oil, and Mr Putin has expressed concerns about pushing prices too high, believing it could bring on rival supplies — especially US shale — too quickly.
With Russia’s oil industry made up of both state-backed and private enterprises, there is also some wariness about demanding companies rein in production aggressively, having only let them run free in June after 18 months of output restraint.
Its two-year old oil-alliance with Riyadh is, however, of great importance to Moscow and its aim of taking on a bigger role in the Middle East.
The opportunity to drive a thicker wedge between Washington and Riyadh may help Mr Putin overcome some of his doubts, and Russia may find itself supporting an oil production cut. It too has one eye on arms sales to Riyadh, including of its highly advanced S-400 air defence system, which has created consternation in Washington.
All three leaders are expected to attend the G20 summit in Argentina next week, just days before the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia lead meetings of the expanded Opec+ group in Vienna on oil production policy.