due to several factors: extremely harsh winter weather that locked down economic activity for weeks in some areas; the West Coast ports slowdown that severely hampered trade for more than three months; the strong dollar´s hit on exports; and general global economic weakness.
The initial estimate for the January-March economic growth rate was just 0.2 percent, and some analysts believe that will be revised to a negative number.
But with winter over and ports back to full operation, the second quarter should be better.
After its last policy meeting in late April, the Fed said it believed the first-quarter slump reflected “in part” such transitory factors.
Job gains last month were strongest in construction, health care, and professional and business services, while losses came in mining, particularly the oil and gas industry, where companies are cutting back sharply due to the oil price crash.
“The good news is that there is any job growth at all, given the rapidity with which the air has come out of the oil economy,” said Chris Low of FTN Financial.
“But we also see a healthy rebound in construction despite weakness in oil states. In other words, outside of the oil sector, the economy remains vibrant.”
If the rebound is sustained over the next months, it should confirm the Fed´s plan to pull the benchmark federal funds rate up from zero, where it has sat since the end of 2008 to help the economy recover from the Great Recession.
“This report will keep the Fed on track for tightening this year, but it will not help the case for moving earlier than September,” O´Sullivan said..
Markets interpreted the data as pointing to later and slower rate hikes, and forgot about Fed Chair Janet Yellen´s Wednesday remarks that shares were overvalued and the bond yields were dangerously low, given the Fed´s rate plans.
Those comments sent stocks sinking and bond yields sharply higher. But on Friday stocks took off again, with the S&P 500 up 1.3 percent and back near record territory.
The 10-year treasury bond yield meanwhile plunged from 2.18 percent to 2.12 percent, below where it was just before Yellen´s remarks.