LONDON/HONG KONG: Factory growth stuttered across the world in July, heightening concerns about the global economic outlook as an intensifying trade conflict between the United States and China sent shudders through trading partners.
Global economic activity remains solid, but it has already passed its peak, according to economists polled by Reuters last month. They expect protectionist policies on trade - which show no signs of abating - to tap the brakes.
But slowing growth, wilting confidence, and trade war fears are not likely to deter major central banks moving away from their ultra-loose monetary policies put in place during the last financial crisis.
"Growth overall is still there, and while there are risks, it´s holding up.
The big picture of a trade war and protectionism is that it is a slow death - a death by a thousand paper cuts instead of anything sudden and shocking," said Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at TD Securities.
"Growth is still resilient, unemployment rates are low, inflation and wages are rising - that´s the bigger picture and so they (central banks) have to keep tightening in the face of that," he said.
Last month, China and the United States imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on $34 billion of each other´s goods and another round of tariffs on $16 billion is expected in August. U.S. President Donald Trump´s administration, according to a source familiar with its plans, is poised to propose 25 percent tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports, up from an initial proposal of 10 percent.
Its threat of tariffs on the entire $500 billion or so worth of goods imported from China still stands.