currency,” Taurus Securities Limited said in a research comment.
It attributed disinflation to the lower food prices, especially perishable food items, and fuel prices, “which have tamed overall commodity prices in the country.”
“Low crude oil prices, which tamed inflation in last few months, would keep commodity prices in check in coming months…. However, quarterly revision in House Rent Index and expected rise in gas/fuel prices would result in higher inflation reading, 1.5-2.0 percent (month-on-month, in April’15.”
Food and beverages carry more than one-third weightage in CPI basket and its inflation in Pakistan averaged 7.26 percent from 2011 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 12.99 percent in November 2013 and a record low of -0.48 percent in March of 2015.
Utilities charges (housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel) up by 5.72 percent.
Health and education charges became dearer by 4.3 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively.
Prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco stood at 20.2 percent, clothing and footwear 7.37 percent and furnishings and household equipment maintenance 5.55 percent.
Charges related to recreation and culture went up 3.3 percent and restaurants and hotels 4.97 percent in March 2015 over the same month in 2014.
However, transportation charges were down by negative 10.74 percent.
Historically, from 2003 to October 2014, an average CPI inflation remained in the double-digit, hitting a historic high of 25.33 percent in August 2008 and a record low of 1.41 percent in July 2003.
The declining trend can be judged from the FBS figures that shows inflation in April 2014 at 9.18 percent, May 8.34pc, June 8.22 pc, July 7.88 pc, August 6.99 pc, September 7.68 pc, October 5.82 pc, November 3.96 pc, December 2014 it was at 4.3 percent. In January 2015, CPI was recorded at 3.88 percent, February 3.24pc, and in March it has been clocked in at 2.49 pc.
Senior Economists who have been once the policy planers of the government believe that in Pakistan inflation should be between five to six percent.
Excluding food and energy costs, so-called core inflation stood at 5.9 percent compared to 6.2 percent in previous month and 7.6 percent in March 2014.
Interestingly, the wholesale price index (WPI), on a year-on-year basis, went down by 3.7 percent in March 2015 as compared to 3.4 percent decrease a month ago and increase of 7.7 percent in March 2014.
This also indicates that in the months to come the Consumer Price Index inflation will further go down.
The sensitive price indicator, which gauges weekly-based inflation in kitchen items, gone down by 1.9 pc percent in March 2015 year-on-year, compared to 0.2pc increase a month ago and 8.98pc in March 2014.