ISLAMABAD: Shahbaz Sharif, the new President of the PML-N and one of the top runners for the prime minister's slot in the post-2018 election scenario, is both cautious and calculated.
He desperately wants to be seen standing alongside his crowd pulling elder brother Nawaz Sharif but does not want to irritate the quarters that matter either. To be precise, he needs Nawaz Sharif’s vote without buying his (NS) narrative.
Shahbaz Sharif has achieved an important milestone of becoming PML-N’s President -- thanks to his elder brother’s disqualification by the Supreme Court. However, yet the road ahead is bumpy for him. He knows it’s not easy to reach, smoothly, the office of the prime minister for which he has been dreaming since long.
Shahbaz’s performance in the Punjab served as a booster for the PML-N in the 2013 elections. The PML-N, which predominantly has its vote bank in Punjab, even now expects to encash Shahbaz Sharif’s performance but everyone in the PML-N knows that the forthcoming elections will have the focus on Nawaz Sharif’s narrative.
Although, Shahbaz Sharif’s tenures remained free from any serious allegations of corruption, of late he has become the focus of both a section of the media and the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) with regard to the alleged corruption of his government. The media dragged him in the alleged Multan Metro corruption story connected with a Chinese company but it turned out to be a fake news as both the Pakistani as well as the Chinese authorities denied it.
Some within the PML-N fear that the Multan Metro story was cooked up to dent Shahbaz Sharif’s repute. But things become serious for Shahbaz after the NAB became keenly active in the Punjab. During the recent months, the Bureau has not only summoned Shahbaz Sharif but has also initiated probes relating to over two dozen provincial government entities.
Shahbaz Sharif and his government recently appeared seriously jolted when the NAB arrested one of their leading members of the bureaucratic team and confidante -- Ahmad Cheema -- for alleged corruption. It is yet to be seen if the NAB finds anything solid against Shahbaz Sharif or his government. However, it appears that the intentions are clear and focused -- find something against Shahbaz. Thus, it won’t be an easy going for him.
Otherwise, the Hudaibya case was hanging like a sword of Damocles over his head. Although, the NAB had entangled Nawaz Sharif in this case too, in actual it was a serious case against Shahbaz Sharif and his son Hamza Shahbaz. To Shahbaz Sharif’s good luck, the Supreme Court has closed the case for good.
Whether or not Shahbaz Sharif is the target of powers that be, he will not react in the manner his elder brother and niece do after the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif.
His past is a witness that Shahbaz Sharif never wanted to displease the powerful quarters even if he had to compromise and surrender. It is also known to all and sundry that from the very beginning, he was opposed to the trial of General Musharraf for the reason that he did not want to irritate certain quarters. He always wanted a smooth relationship with the establishment.
Will he change now after his elder brother’s narrative has become popular? No, is the most likely answer. He and his elder son have already sounded in public their reservations to Nawaz-Maryium attacks on the institutions.
And now after his becoming the President of the PML-N and getting closer to the office of Prime Minister, Shahbaz will neither attack the military establishment nor the judiciary. He will not do anything that may spoil his journey.
The speech that Shahbaz Sharif read after becoming the President of the PML-N on Tuesday, will remain his policy. While remaining within the parameters of law, he will sympathise with his elder brother and will also express his reservations to the disqualification of his elder brother but will not cross the red-lines vis-a-vis the judiciary. Speaking against the establishment is out of question.
Instead, Shahbaz Sharif and his younger son -- Suleman Shahbaz -- are believed to have good contacts with those who matter in the powerful quarters. During the recent months while Nawaz Sharif and his daughter have been reacting to the judiciary's decisions, Shahbaz Sharif praised the Supreme Court when he got favourable decisions in the Hudaibya as well as Orange train cases.
Those who closely know the Sharif family are of the view that Shahbaz Sharif can though never stab his brother, yet the PML-N under him will soften up its anti-establishment and anti-judiciary posturing with every passing day.
Shahbaz Sharif knows this is the only strategy that will help him enter the office of country’s chief executive.