Qatar-Turkey-Gulf axis,” Abu Amer said.
“It seems they’re demanding as a precondition... that he publicly declare his support for the Assad regime,” which Hamas is refusing to do, he added.
Hamas has for months trumpeted an upcoming meeting between Meshaal and Iran’s leaders which has not materialised — a clear sign of problems, according to Nathan Thrall of International Crisis Group.
A visit by Meshaal to Tehran “would be the signal there’s a real shift taking place, and that hasn’t come yet,” he told AFP.
“Even in the best-case scenario... relations are unlikely to return to what they once were.”
Hamas appears to have had more success mending ties with Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah.
A Hizbullah website in January published what it said was a letter from Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif calling for forces hostile to Israel to “unite”.
Yezid Sayigh, an expert at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, said Hamas’s efforts to rebuild the relationship with Iran and Hizbullah were still at a very early stage.
“More is expected of Hamas than it can give right away, including reversing its stance towards Assad.”
Israel’s 50-day war with Hamas last July and August left much of Gaza in ruins and severely depleted the Palestinian militants’ rocket supply.
Hamas, which controls the coastal enclave, is also unable to pay its security forces due to a lack of cash.
Neighbouring Egypt has since 2013 destroyed hundreds of cross-border smuggling tunnels that were a key supply line for materials, supplies and funds into the Palestinian enclave.
Reconciliation with Iran could mean “that money begins to come from Tehran to Gaza, in the middle of a financial crisis for Gaza,” Abu Amer said.
“Iran also has ways and means, through the Red Sea, through Sudan, Sinai, and so on, to send weapons to Hamas.”
Reconciliation prospects are clouded by efforts between world powers and Iran to seal a deal over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
“There’s huge uncertainty about what Iran’s policies are going to be if they reach a deal with the US, and that’s uncertainty for Hamas,” Thrall said.
A nuclear agreement could either embolden Iran to become “more aggressive” — pumping money and arms to militant groups such as Hamas — or to enter a tacit alliance with the US, Thrall said.
And in a Middle East where numerous proxy battles are being fought — often between Iran’s allies on one side and groups on the other — Hamas might hedge its bets, Abu Amer said, suggesting the group was optimistic of rapprochement with Riyadh, Doha and Ankara.
Supporting Assad “would be a loss for Hamas in popularity among Arabs and Palestinians,” he said.
“It might not be in a rush for reconciliation with Iran if it fears losing support from the Gulf axis.”