Backed into a corner by the opposition’s joint front and the defection of many of his party members, Sanaullah Zehri was left with no option but to resign as chief minister of Balochistan. The anti-Zehri forces had sufficient numbers to pass a no-confidence motion against him and resignation was the only way to avoid the humiliation of a forced removal. The opposition and renegade government members insist they were only motivated by disapproval of Zehri’s performance, with recently-resigned home minister Sarfaraz Bugti claiming there was no other reason for seeking Zehri’s ouster. Still, that this crisis arose with Senate elections only two months away and general elections expected to be held in six months has led to speculation that this was a deliberate attempt to destabilise the PML-N. The Senate elections will give the PML-N and its allies a majority in the upper house of parliament, something those who wish to see the back of the PML-N would want to avoid. Constitutionally, Zehri’s resignation should not affect the Senate elections. A new candidate for chief minister can be chosen by the PML-N and be approved by the Balochistan Assembly. The party will be worried though about the possibility that no such candidate will be voted in because of what the PML-N will see as outside machinations, creating a political stalemate.
The two most likely options to replace Zehri are Jan Muhammad Jamali and Saleh Bhutani, both of whom belong to the government. A new chief minister, however, will not have much time to make a mark before the tenure of the Balochistan government expires. Winning a majority in the assembly will also require keeping the fragile coalition together. Ultimately, Zehri was not able to tough it out because even PML-N allies like the JUI-F started to urge his resignation and at least 10 PML-N MPAs were going to vote in favour of the no-confidence motion. Whether these MPAs lost confidence only in Zehri or are part of a larger plan to weaken the party at the centre will become clear once a new chief minister is chosen. Should they support the candidate, this crisis will likely prove short-lived. Should they not, however, it would once again raise fears that PML-N members are being targeted for defection. The possibility then arises that the Senate polls may be delayed or outright cancelled thanks to what to many would be an engineered emergency. Every political disruption, no matter how large or small, will leave the political class on edge for the next two months as we get closer to the next elections.