Setting aside the advice of his party men that discretion is the better part of valour, Nawaz Sharif continues to protest his disqualification – while also taking a dig at those he perceives made a bad decision. Like it or lump it, this is politically a bold stance. Since Sharif heads the PML-N, his is also the stance of the party.
Be that as it may, the same PML-N meekly bowed to the right wing first in Islamabad and then in Lahore by inking agreements with them on their (the clerics’) terms. Generally, a vanquished country is forced to sign such agreements. So we have a doubled-faced PML-N: at once daring and submissive. How we are to account for this obvious contradiction?
After he had been sent home by the Supreme Court, the former three-time prime minister had two courses open to him. He could grin and bear his disqualification, pack up his bags and go into hibernation. He did not choose this reconciliatory course. Instead, he decided to take the bull by the horns and started rounding on the institutions which, he believed, unfairly brought the curtains down on his tenure. Four months have passed since he left the prime minister’s office but he continues to blow hot and cold. Not only that, he partially got the apex court’s judgment offset through the enactment of the Elections Act, 2017, which scrapped the clause debarring a disqualified legislator from leading a political party.
There is no dearth of people both within and outside the PML-N who maintain that Sharif has become a little irrational in the wake of his unceremonious exit and that his defiance is a bit of a madcap adventure, which would play havoc with the fortunes of both the party and his family. A party, the argument goes, which is on the wrong side of the powers that be, does not have a cat in hell’s chance of making it to the corridors of power. If Sharif, the argument goes on, persists with setting down his ouster to a conspiracy, the PML-N would not only break-up but also find it difficult to return to the seat of power after the upcoming elections.
Nawaz Sharif’s uncompromising stance is also contrasted with the ‘pragmatism’ of his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif, who is believed to be on far better terms with the establishment and a dab hand at deal making. The senior Sharif has also been advised to hand over the reins of the party to his pragmatic brother, who can easily spearhead it to another electoral triumph. It is also said that the two brothers are at loggerheads over the question of succession, as each wants his scion – Nawaz his daughter and Shahbaz his son – to be the next top boss of the party.
Whether a Shahbaz- or Nawaz-led PML-N has better electoral prospects is anybody’s guess. But one can safely say that to date the PML-N’s vote-bank is predominantly that of the elder Sharif; the junior Sharif figures in only as his faithful lieutenant. In case, Shahbaz parts ways with his brother, he will do so only at his own peril.
With Nawaz Sharif having sallied forth in the post-disqualification scenario, the PML-N governments both in the centre and in Punjab were expected to tackle the TLY sit-ins adroitly. But that was not to be. The way they surrendered to the whims of the TLY clerics was utterly disappointing – to say the least. Nawaz Sharif publicly took a dig at his party colleagues for their daft handling of the Islamabad dharna, which, he said, brought a bad name to Pakistan internationally. But his criticism seems to be a cosmetic exercise, as the prime minister and his cabinet are seen as still being influenced by him, and it’s hard to believe that they could have signed the deal with the TLY without a nod from their top leader.
The interior minister and some other bigwigs in the ruling party have admitted that the agreement with the TLY was struck under duress. Let’s admit that was the case and that there was pressure – even by the armed forces – to bring the sit-in to a close without the use of force. But such words of advice do not absolve Sharif and the ruling party from their responsibility. In fact, there is much more to the government-TLY pact than ‘advice’ from the armed forces.
The PML-N is a right-wing party, which has always counted on the religious vote-bank. Nawaz Sharif’s politics began and shot up under military ruler Ziaul Haq, who would style himself as a soldier of Islam, and who was a godfather of religious and sectarian outfits. The use of religion for political purposes by the late general caused incalculable damage to society; it also defaced the constitution.
Though over the years, Sharif distanced himself from his erstwhile mentor’s legacy, he continued to play ball with religious parties. During the late 1980s and 1990s, when Sharif and Benazir Bhutto were the main contenders for power, the clergy always sided with the PML-N. The multi-party alliance that was cobbled together to face a centre-left PPP in the 1988, and subsequently 1990, elections was named the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI). The Jamaat-e-Islami, a noted religio-political party, was part of the alliance; so was Sharif’s PML.
During the last two national polls (2008 and 2013) as well, a big chunk of the religious vote bank in Punjab went to the PML-N. In recent years, the rise of the PTI, another right-wing party, has threatened to dent the support of the PML-N among religious quarters. The latest challenge to the religious vote-bank of the PML-N comes from the TLY and the Milli Muslim League (MML). Both these parties made their presence felt in the last two by-elections for the National Assembly.
The TLY represents the Barelvi sub-sect, the largest creed in Punjab, and gets its inspiration from the execution of Mumtaz Qadri, the cop who gunned down Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer for being critical of the blasphemy law. In the eye of a considerable section of society, even a soft criticism of the blasphemy law is itself blasphemous and thus it’s an unpardonable act.
Interestingly, the TLY’s dharnas in Islamabad and Lahore were precipitated by an inadvertent mistake in the election oath in the recently enacted the Elections Act, 2017 – the law which restored Nawaz Sharif as the head of the PML-N. The error was subsequently rectified and there is no evidence it was made by design. But it provided the TLY with enough ammunition to gun for the persons responsible for the error. In the end, the religious right was successful in forcing the federal law minister to step down.
Thus the PML-N government’s surrender to the TLY was in the main prompted by political expediency, viz to safeguard the enormous Barelvi vote-bank in Punjab. The performance of the TLY in the NA-120 by-poll was a reminder to the erstwhile ruling party that it could not take for granted its traditional vote-bank even in its power base. The voters, probably exasperated with the PML-N over Mumtaz Qadri’s execution, had to be mollified. As the ruling party probably thought, tough handling of TLY sit-ins might alienate the religious vote-bank, which would ratchet down its electoral prospects.
Whether caving in to the religious right has secured the PML-N’s vote-bank is anybody’s guess. However, by all accounts, it has left the state emaciated. This is political expediency at its worst.
The writer is a freelancecontributor.
Email: hussainhzaidigmail.com