In the aftermath of the declaration by BRICS identifying terrorist groups operating from Pakistan and President Donald Trump’s rabid attacks on the country as a harbourer of militant safe havens, Islamabad has been forced into a serious re-examination of its foreign policy. In this context Foreign Minister Khawja Asif’s ongoing visit to Beijing is particularly crucial. Pakistan’s gradually shifting regional policy was evident during Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif’s meetings with his counterpart in China. The initial statement by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi seems positive, with Beijing stressing its long relationship with Pakistan and pointing out that Pakistan has suffered badly as a result of terrorism and done all it could to promote world peace. We must hope this line of thinking from Beijing will continue, although analysts note that there is almost certain to be some degree of rebuke for Pakistan’s problems in combating militancy. The Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi also went on to announce a trilateral meeting to be held between him, Asif and the Afghan foreign minister. This will be the first time such a meeting is held and represents a marked change for Pakistan, which had previously used the Quadrilateral Crisis Group as its preferred avenue for multilateral diplomacy concerning the war in Afghanistan. For China, too, this is a change as it is now becoming more involved in Afghanistan than ever before.
Both Pakistan and China were spurred into action by US President Donald Trump’s new Afghanistan policy. Pakistan was understandably alarmed at being accused of allowing the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network to operate on its soil and needed an alternative with the US becoming an increasingly unreliable partner. China, meanwhile, would have been worried by Trump’s invitation to India to become more involved in the development of Afghanistan. The last thing China wants right now is for its regional rival – and one with which it has only just ended a border stand-off – to increase its influence in a country that neighbours China.
Whether this approach will work is another matter altogether. The government of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has been the biggest obstacle in the QCG achieving any breakthroughs and his approach is unlikely to change when sending his foreign minister to meet with Asif and Wang Yi. The US is the one country which holds enough leverage with Afghanistan to convince it that diplomacy is the way to go but there is no sign it has any desire to use its leverage to that end. An interesting suggestion came from a US Congressperson on Friday who suggested the US tie Afghan aid to recognition of the Durand Line as an international border. Should Afghanistan do so, it could end many of the border skirmishes between the two countries and reassure Pakistan that the ultimate Afghan aim is not the taking of territory that is part of our country. The Trump administration, however, is moving closer to India and so is likely to follow its lead and actively encourage divisions between Afghanistan and Pakistan rather than reduce them. All of this explains why, even aside from the economic benefits provided by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, we are moving closer to China and refusing the dictates of the US. This shift in foreign policy has been gradual but is now unmistakeable.