President Donald Trump’s U-turns on his campaign promises have continued as the US administration finally announced its ‘new Afghan policy’. Announcing extra troops for Afghanistan – a repeat of Obama’s failed policy in 2009 and a walking back of his campaign pledge to withdraw all forces – the American president has decided the US would rather “kill terrorists” than “construct democracies in faraway lands.” This suggests a much more militarised policy for Afghanistan – and possibly Pakistan – the ‘Mother of all Bombs’ being an obvious symbol of which. The obvious vagueness and lack of details regarding the way forward is symptomatic of Trump’s policies – which usually play to the gallery without any substance.
Pakistan seemed to be on the American president’s mind – and not in any way that should be comforting for us. In what can only be called a worrying new development, Trump chose to threaten to cut off aid to Pakistan and rather pointedly also spoke about ‘terrorist safe havens’ on Pakistani soil. He also managed to rather distastefully trivialise any cost paid by us – in the form of Pakistani lives no less – in its counterterrorism efforts. While demands to ‘do more’ have also been a feature in previous US administrations, Trump has problematically also asked India to increase its economic assistance and development aid to Afghanistan, something India has used to build its own influence in the country. Since coming into power, Trump has shown no appetite for diplomacy in Afghanistan. The Quadrilateral Coordination Group, which was supposed to initiate peace talks with the Taliban, has become moribund. The only feint towards peace in his speech was Trump acknowledging there could be an eventual settlement with the Taliban – but that was quickly undercut when he said no one knows if that will ever happen.
For Pakistan, the bigger problem should be the threats to military aid. Trump seems to have little understanding that we are fighting are own war in Pakistan – one which is the direct result of the initial US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Much of the financial assistance we get is actually repayment for anti-terror assistance given to the US. To link those repayments to the US war in Afghanistan would be counter-productive. Similarly, there is no doubt that the US is moving ever closer to India but to endorse a greater role for the country in Afghanistan will not help bring peace to the region. Trump is making all the mistakes his predecessors did and the results in Afghanistan are unlikely to be any different. Militarised strategies forget that the fundamental nature of any conflict is political. In this sense, the new Afghan policy can be considered akin to the Trump administration admitting that there will be no policy for the region. This is alarming. Till the close of business day on Tuesday, the Pakistan government had responded by saying that Pakistan has done more and lost more lives in the war on terror and that the Foreign Office is expected to give a more detailed response to the American president’s ‘policy’. More than anything else, though, the country will need to prepare for what Trump’s threats really mean in real terms.