allies Beijing and Moscow.
Kim’s grandfather and North Korea’s founding leader Kim Il-Sung managed to visit most of the former Eastern Bloc, but the fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of the Soviet Union left fewer destination options for Kim Jong-Il when he took over in 1994.
Kim Jong-Il also hated flying, and limited his travels to train trips to China and Russia.
Kim’s choice of Russia for his foreign debut would be a reflection of warming ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, especially on the trade and economic front.
It would also signal Kim’s desire to reduce his country’s dependence on China, which remains North Korea’s main ally, diplomatic protector and economic buttress.
Xi and Kim have kept their distance since each assumed power and the Chinese leader’s first visit as head of state to the Korean peninsula last year was to the capitalist South rather than the North.
While protocol would require formal talk with Putin, it is unclear what interaction, if any, Kim might have with the Chinese president.
Veteran North Korean watcher Andrei Lankov said Kim might be seeking to emulate his grandfather, who played Moscow and Beijing off against each other throughout the 1970s and 80s.
“Kim Il-Sung wrung a lot of concessions from both of them without giving much away in return,” said Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul.
“It was a masterful lesson in diplomacy, that his grandson must surely have studied,” he added.
The same Cold War politics may no longer be in play, but Russia’s current estrangement from the West is opening doors to new friends — even isolated states like North Korea.
“And while North Korea is not looking to escape China’s influence, it does want to reduce it, especially given Beijing’s obvious displeasure with its nuclear weapons programme,” Lankov said.
Russia is seeking to expand economic ties with North Korea and is eyeing a project worth about $25 billion to overhaul the country’s railway network in return for access to mineral resources.
Whether Kim’s Moscow visit will herald a flurry of diplomatic activity by the young leader remains to be seen.
“In fact, until we actually see him turn up in Moscow, there’s no guarantee he will actually go there at all,” Lankov said.