yet clear whether they were prepared to mount the kind of large-scale offensive necessary to take Mariupol.
Analysts speculated that the rocket assault may have been meant to sow panic and degrade confidence in Ukraine’s government, or possibly distract Kiev’s military while rebels pursue their advance elsewhere.
Oleksiy Melnyk of the Razumkov Centre think tank in Kiev said he believed the aim was “to break the morale of the Ukrainian authorities, so as to provoke social unrest or protests in frontline regions.”
He alleged that, for Moscow and the rebels, “the purpose of the firing was to show Ukrainians that the military did not protect the population”.
The potential danger is apparent. While Kiev’s retreat from the Donetsk airport was merely a symbolic loss since the site was in ruins after months of fighting, Mariupol’s surrender would be devastating.
Oleksandr Sushko of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kiev pointed out that the city is the largest Ukrainian port on the Sea of Azov and home to two major steel plants.
“The value of Mariupol is much more than symbolic,” he said of the city of some 500,000 people.
While its intentions are far from clear, Russia may indeed see the current situation as an opportunity to consolidate territory, US-based security analysts Stratfor said.
“The Russians do not want a massive confrontation with the West at a time of economic dysfunction, yet at the same time, having made the decision to hold Crimea, they will not have a better moment for consolidation,” it said.
Russia, under heavy Western sanctions over its alleged role in Ukraine, has repeatedly denied supplying troops, weapons and equipment to the rebels despite satellite images to the contrary.
Support for the sanctions had been seen as weakening among some European nations that rely on Russia for trade, but with peace efforts tossed aside by the rebel offensive, both the United States and EU have again threatened consequences for Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far shown little will to compromise, even with sanctions and low oil prices taking a heavy toll on his economy.