After months of delay, Pakistan and India finally resumed the Permanent Water Commission talks on Monday, with Indus Water Commissioner Mirza Asif Saeed hosting his Indian counterpart PK Saxena. The meeting was dominated by India’s planned construction of the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects, both of which Pakistan feels violate its right to the fair use of water from the Indus and its western tributaries under the Indus Water Treaty. The differences between Pakistan and India are too deep to be resolved by a single meeting but there is some cause for hope after the two countries agreed to hold secretary-level talks in Washington next month, which will be overseen by the US government. This willingness to at least negotiate is something of a breakthrough given India’s unyielding stance. After the Uri attack last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had gone so far as to threaten to pull out of the Indus Waters Treaty and even shut off Pakistan’s supply of water. Doing so would have been a gross violation of international law but that Modi even felt emboldened enough to issue such a threat showed how minimal the chance of an agreement was.
The two countries are so far apart right now they cannot even agree on the best mechanism for resolving the dispute over the dams. Pakistan wants the issue to be adjudicated by the International Court of Arbitration while India wants the World Bank to appoint a panel of neutral experts. The World Bank was so worried the Indus Waters Treaty would not survive the latest India hostility that it even announced a pause in the arbitration of the dispute last year. The meeting in Washington is unlikely to lead to a resolution of the arguments over the dams but, at best, the two countries may agree on the best forum in which to tackle the issue. In the long run, the Kishanganga and Ratle dams are likely the first of many such fights. The Indus Waters Treaty does not specify how much water India is allowed to store in dams or how water between the two countries should be divided in dry years. As the reality of climate change kicks in and water resources become even scarcer, India will become more likely to use water as a weapon. Word is that the Modi government has fast-tracked almost $15 billion worth of hydropower projects in Kashmir. The six hydro projects in Indian-held Kashmir had been languishing in the pipeline for years before clearing viability and environmental and forest expert approvals in three months. It is only fair that India be asked to provide details of these projects, which could seriously impact water supply for Pakistan. While any new projects would take years to make functional, they will play an important role in relations between the two countries going forward. Ultimately, a comprehensive solution will be needed so that this essential resource does not become a bargaining chip in political disagreements.