Part - III
Despite its overconfidence, Ashraf Ghani’s government seems directionless and toothless. There are many factors responsible for its failure.
The current political setup in Afghanistan is personality-driven instead of being run by strong political parties. The democratic political culture has not yet developed and individuals reign supreme on the political landscape. Ethnic divides and politics of north and south dominated the presidential election. With the intervention of the US, a coalition government was formed based on a 50-50 allocation of important portfolios. The sharing of portfolios was not confined to the highest executive posts but also applied to the NDS posts. The coalition setup and the divergent interests of the two blocs weakened Ghani’s position.
In addition, the coalition partners of the Ghani bloc are not his ideological friends but products of an electoral bargain. He has shared important portfolios with his partners, such as Rashid Dostum. Similarly, the Abdullah Abdullah bloc is a mixture of different warlords. Like Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah has also shared important posts with his coalition partners. Ghani has made Rashid Dostum his vice president while Abdullah Abdullah has appointed a Pakhtun engineer Mohammad Khan as deputy chief executive. The divide between these blocs has weakened Ghani’s government.
The presence of external proxies in the Afghan political system has created a hurdle for the successful operation of government machinery. The external powers have planted influential people in Afghan politics as their proxies and are dictating their actions from abroad. For instance, Rashid Dostum is under the direct influence of Uzbekistan and Turkey while Ismail Khan takes dictation from Iran. Similarly, the US, UK, India, Tajikistan and Germany have their own proxies. It is not difficult to determine who serves whose interests among the influential Afghan warlords and politicians.
Internal division and external influence have made Ghani’s administration toothless in ensuring effective governance. He has been rendered helpless in making major decisions on his own. The proposed cooperation between the ISI and NDS is a glaring example of Ghani’s ineffectiveness. Ghani wanted the ISI and NDS cooperation to materialise. But NDS former chief Rahmatullah Nabil – who was part of the anti-Pakistan bloc – did not allow this to happen.
External powers like the US, India, China, and Iran are not happy with the current setup. However, they are only enduring it due to their high stakes in Afghanistan and the fear of allowing Afghanistan to drift towards the opposite bloc. They have a different approach towards Afghanistan.
The US does not want to either permanently withdraw from Afghanistan or ensure durable peace in the country. Instead, it wants permanent base camps and temporary peace to ensure the success of the war on terror. The CIA, Pentagon, the US State Department and the White House do not appear to be on the same page about handling Afghanistan. It seems that the CIA wants to shift the war from the west and south to the north and east so it can be used against Russia, China and Pakistan. A civil war close to Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan will be used as a weapon against CPEC.
Europe and the UK are apparently following the US policy. However, France and Germany are going solo in some aspects. Turkey, as a Nato member, is not following the American line and has therefore earned a good name in Afghanistan.
Russia seems to be in a dilemma. It does not want the US and its allies to succeed in Afghanistan and cannot afford to let the Taliban return. Drug production, trafficking, Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan are its main headache. However, it seems that Russia wants peace in Afghanistan; and Moscow has also established links with the Taliban.
China wants peace in Afghanistan due to its larger economic interests in the region and beyond. The country is aware that without achieving stability in Afghanistan, its strategic goal of the One Belt one Road project, CPEC and strengthening trade links with Central Asia, Iran or Europe is unlikely to materialise. Facing extremists in Xinjiang, China considers the Taliban as a threat to its own integration. Traditionally, China looked towards Pakistan for the political management of Afghanistan. But China has now become active on the strategic, political and diplomatic fronts in Afghanistan. Its embassy has sprung into action and it appears that China has established links with the Taliban. However, China – being new on the Afghan front – lacks an effective intelligence base and understanding of the various political forces in Afghanistan.
Saudi Arabia once had an active role in Afghanistan. But it is now preoccupied in the chaotic Middle East and therefore relies on Pakistan in handling Afghanistan. However, Iran has succeeded in establishing a strong influence inside Afghanistan. In the past, Iran exercised strong influence over Karzai and it has also strengthened ties with Ghani. It has also established contacts with Al-Qaeda.
Through the effective use of Persian – which is also spoken in Afghanistan – Iran has firmly established its influence in Afghan society and media. It is widely believed that lobbies from Iran and India are involved in anti-Pakistan activities. Overall, though, it seems that Iran wants peace in Afghanistan and is ready to work with any group – but on its own terms.
Though the extent of India’s influence within Afghanistan has been exaggerated, it remains a fact that the Indian lobby is active on the social, political and intelligence fronts as well as in the Afghan media. Through the effective use of soft power and development projects, India is busy winning the hearts and minds of the Afghans. It is not concerned with war or peace but wants to maintain friendly ties with Afghanistan and use it as a proxy against Pakistan.
India has employed a different strategy on the Afghan front. Instead of emphasising or sponsoring a specific group, it is investing in the infrastructure of the social, political and media sectors. At the same time, it is helping the NDS through funding to support and use existing groups against Pakistan. India judges various groups not by their previous records or ideologies, but by their current utility and effectiveness for its design in Afghanistan.
This article is part of the writer’s ‘Afghanistan’ series.
To be continued
The writer works for Geo TV.
Email: saleem.safijanggroup.com.pk