“When things get to their extreme, they turn into their opposite.” This strange, counterintuitive principle of Taoism, the traditional Chinese religion, was fully endorsed by Carl Jung who coined the term Enantiodromia to adopt it to his analytical psychology.
Many in Pakistan pin their hopes for change on a similar idea. But there’s a problem: it is very hard to know when things become extreme. On his first address to the nation, Pervez Musharraf had told us that it was time to move up because the nation had hit rock bottom already, but then he moved to dig a deeper hole for us which we are still trying to climb out of.
New Year’s Eve is a time to take stock of the continuity and change. It is a time to comment on the past year like a sage and make predictions about the new year like a soothsayer. That’s what I am trying to do here, particularly about the three political parties – one in government and two in opposition.
The Pakistan People’s Party, the party of martyrs, has found its enantiodromia in suicide. If martyrdom is the most glorious form of death, suicide is the most ignominious way to meet the Maker. Martyrdom is based on bravery, on the courage to willingly go through the final rite of passage for the sake of a greater objective. Suicide, on the other hand, is centred on the fear of change. Suicide does not have to be active: there is also a passive form of suicide that entails destroying oneself through acts of omission.
The PPP has decided to destroy itself by staying what it is today – and today it is Asif Ali Zardari. On December 27, the PPP reasserted this resolve at Garhi Khuda Bakhsh. After a rousing reception in Karachi, it was time for Zardari to make an historic speech at Garhi Khuda Bakhsh. He was so confident with his chemistry with the people that he came totally unprepared and spoke as ideas and sentences took shape in his mind.
During the speech, he did not utter the Bhutto word even once, though it was the 9th martyrdom anniversary of Benazir Bhutto and he was standing in front of the mausoleum of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Throughout his speech, he did not address the crowd or the people of Pakistan even once. His monologue was directed at Mian Nawaz Sharif. “Mian Sahib, hum ne aapko siasat amaanat main di thi” (Mian Sahib, we had given you politics for safe-keeping). Ever heard anything more absurd from a politician? He was obviously referring to his earlier policy of being soft on the PML-N.
Zardari has finally got it right. The PPP must oppose the PML-N if it wants to attract anti-Nawaz voters. However, having lost that vote bank in its romance with the enemy, the PPP now needs to do a lot more. It needs to show to the public that it stands in contrast to the PML-N, both in terms of its policies and its symbols. The PTI finds such a contrast in it is transparency versus corruption narrative. For the PPP, it could be interests of the poor – excluded classes and excluded geographical areas – against the rich.
But can Zardari even make such a statement with a straight face as stories of his cronies and partners in the sugar industry picking pockets of farmers and peasants are the talk of the town? Can the sugar industry take on the sugar industry? And can crony capitalism make crony capitalism accountable in the name of the poor?
Therefore, Zardari Sahib did not even touch upon the subject of the future of the people of Pakistan. Instead, he gave us the great tiding that he will chaperone his son to the National Assembly of Pakistan to take on the Mughal emperor. Many observers believe that, using his great negotiation skills, Zardari can lure many electables in the assembly to the fold of the PPP. Unfortunately, electables are more sensitive to political winds than the weather cock on the roof of Bilawal House.
If the PPP is changing by staying the same, the PTI – the party of change – has not changed itself either. Imran Khan, the one trick pony of Pakistan’s politics, repeated his trick once again during the past year, winning applause from those who remain mesmerised by his performance. But he again failed to impress the third umpire. As the umpire’s finger has disappeared into dark clouds, tabdeeli must take the route of the ballot box.
Unfortunately, there is a catch and the PTI understands it well. The party needs another miracle in the next elections, and miracles are often reluctant to repeat themselves. In the 2013 elections, the PTI’s vote bank soared from one percent to 17 percent. In 2018, it needs to double its vote bank yet again to send Nawaz Sharif back to Raiwind. Nawaz Sharif may not come out of Panama scandal unscathed; so much has been revealed about the way he and his family conduct their business. However, it may not be enough to nudge the voters in Punjab, particularly when people are in default mode and believe that the ruling party is all set to win the next election.
Elections in Pakistan are held in two modes – default mode and movement mode. In the default mode, the chariot of victory is pulled by stallions of the kinship network, patronage politics and the political acumen of the constituency-smart candidate. However, when people realise that the winds of change are blowing, they take their revenge on the incumbents and the system. ‘Hawaa’ – the wind – is one of the most repeated words every election season though its intensity and direction is always hard to measure. Winds may blow for reasons that are hard to calculate in advance but often they need a good sorcerer.
Imran Khan has tried to keep Pakistan in the movement mode for three years at least, spending a good part of his political capital, exhausting the energies of his supporters and the imagination of the people. He may find it hard to resurrect a movement-like situation close to elections. There is no palpable anger amongst the public as they are experiencing some respite after the global financial crisis and have benefitted from the sharp decline in oil prices. The PML-N, the lucky child of politics, has CPEC dreams in its bag to sell to the people. In such a situation, he will find his only hope in what is termed as the grand alliance of the opposition parties.
This new year is the year of spectator sports. Do enjoy, dear readers. And don’t get too excited.
The writer is an anthropologist and development professional.
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