Those who were expecting that the PPP would give a ‘surprise’ to probably show its forgotten fighting spirit and retrieve its lost popular space must have been disappointed.
Ironically, the ‘surprise’ was Asif Ali Zardari’s coup-de-grace against the emerging prospects of his son, Bilawal, as a radical social liberal. Treading behind his father, Bilawal and his rhetoric of ‘social democracy’ will have to wait for another time as he plays the role of an obedient son, watching his dad’s real politick.
The irony of all ironies is that Zardari, while accusing the House of Sharif of behaving like oligarchic Mughals, reminded us of Emperor Akbar’s treatment of his rebellious prince. However, the difference in Zardari’s case is that a possessive father has politely taken the loyal and promising son into his protective custody. Bilawal’s desperate efforts to revive the legacy of his illustrious mother were dashed when Zardari took the steam out of the balloon of Bilawal’s ‘political long march’ and obliged Nawaz Sharif by taking control of the PPP.
By managing a tumultuous reception, Zardari showed his inclination to wrest control of the PPP and prevent the party from effectively slipping into the hands of the radical democrats being prompted by the responsive Bhutto-Zardari in his absence. But the Rangers’ action against Anwar Majeed, a close business associate of Zardari, sent the opposite message – to not let him run his fiefdom again.
On the most auspicious occasion of BB’s ninth death anniversary, Zardari preempted young Bilawal’s tirade against the government and surprised everybody by deciding to contest a by-election and take center-stage in an outgoing parliament. But the question that remains is: will his nomination papers be accepted in the presence of the assets reference case that is still pending? Zardari is definitely going to be asked about his wealth and sources of income, even though he has not been convicted.
In a way, Zardari decided to defy the powers that be by daring to play a pivotal role in parliament, instead of taking to an uncertain path of agitation that had already been exhausted through the shenanigans of the abortive dharnas by Imran Khan. With the Panama leaks scandal at the last stage of exhaustion in a defusing judicial process, no other big issue is visibly left to fuel a popular protest before the next general elections.
Knowing this well, Zardari restrained Bilawal from a half-futile race and urged him to hold his horses for an opportune time. But the revival of the PPP’s popularity in Punjab, at least, required some stir on the streets without jeopardising the democratic transition. Yet, the PPP is going to become more vocal to compensate for time lost in the hibernation of a friendly opposition, with Zardari setting the stage for new political alignments before the elections and influencing the contours of the next interim setup. However, both Sharif and Zardari must be aware about the bull that can upset the China shop, and those still toying with all-sided minus-one formulas.
In his capacity as the president of the republic, Zardari had done a remarkable job to ensure democratic continuity, transfer power to parliament and the PM, and devolve power to the provinces. However, his reversal of BB’s paradigm of “reconciliation among the civilisations” into reconciling the PPP’s populist ideology to pragmatic opportunism of power for the sake of power and his successive bad choices of two prime ministers cost the PPP its traditional popularity among the toiling masses. This was despite the subsidy provided by the Benazir Income Support Programme. While there was no scandal against former president Zardari, both the prime ministers during the PPP government symbolised bad governance.
The people and the media are, however, surprised by the ‘good news’ that Zardari, instead of taking a back seat, has decided to take the front seat on the opposition benches in the National Assembly. The decision has its own merits – but is not without demerits. It will allow the opposition greater maneuverability with Zardari compensating for the absence of Imran Khan from parliament. If Imran Khan comes back to parliament, he will face a dilemma as to which of his two adversaries to target: if he attacks Nawaz Sharif, he will strengthen Zardari’s bargaining position; and if he attacks Zardari, he will strengthen the PM by dividing the opposition. Given this dilemma, he may prefer a noisier role outside parliament by diluting Bilawal’s prospective role on the streets.
It is not yet clear what roles the father and the son will play in the new game. Anticipating the emergence of a hung parliament in the next elections, rightly or wrongly, Zardari seems to be vying for the prime minister’s office by forging an alliance before the next elections. And Bilawal is left with the role of adding some public vigour to his father’s project to become the next PM.
The real surprise, if at all it is there, will be if Zardari proves to be right in his calculation. Given the current situation, Nawaz Sharif is out of the woods and has emerged stronger than ever. He has consolidated his position not only in the power equation, but has strengthened his grip across Punjab with the election of local government officials–so much so that both the winners and the losers are from the PML-N. Moreover, the reversal to the bureaucratic governing system run by the powerful deputy commissioners ensures the hegemony of Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif to deliver the goods at the local level a year before the next elections.
With the opposition making a noise in parliament, the prime minister will be seen inaugurating various visible development schemes, super highways and energy projects. There is a lot in store to compensate the protesting smaller provinces out of the sprawling China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. And if there will be no loadshedding in the second quarter of 2018, both Zardari and Imran will be left with no option but to either join hands or face a humiliating defeat separately. But Imran Khan would prefer an honorable defeat that may also work to the advantage of Zardari’s coalition-making effort. Let’s see what comes out of the Zardari juggernaut, which Bilawal has yet to understand.
The writer is a senior journalist.
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