France: Poll shows Le Pen and Melenchon head for run-off as political divide deepens
New poll shows Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon widening their leads, pointing to a polarized run-off as Macron's era ends
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon have strengthened their positions against mainstream opponents, raising the prospect of a highly polarized presidential election as President Emmanuel Macron's final term draws to a close.
A recent poll on showed, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon widened their lead over other candidates and would face each other in a run-off in all tested scenarios, stressing growing polarisation as President Emmanuel Macron's era ends.
According to a national survey by Toluna Harris Interactive, Le Pen would lead the first round with between 35% and 37% of the vote, depending on the scenario tested.
The survey was conducted between October 5 and October 8. A similar poll last month put her support at between 33% and 36%.
Mélenchon, the candidate of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, is projected to reach the run-off in all five scenarios examined by the pollster, strengthening his position against mainstream rivals.
The findings point to a shifting political landscape as Macron approaches the end of his second and final five-year term.
The weakening of the political centre has created opportunities for parties on the far right and hard left, including Le Pen's National Rally and Mélenchon's LFI.
Both politicians have contested previous presidential elections, although their electoral records differ.
Le Pen reached the second round in 2017 and 2022, losing to Macron on both occasions, while Mélenchon finished third in both 2017 and 2022, narrowly missing the run-off in the latter election.
The changing balance of support comes amid public concerns over economic growth, the cost of living and international instability.
These pressures have contributed to a more fragmented political environment and increased the appeal of candidates challenging the mainstream parties.
Analysts note, potential Le Pen–Mélenchon run-off would pit two sharply opposing political visions against each other and could further sideline France's traditional governing parties.
However, the outcome would depend on how voters from eliminated candidates' camps align in the second round.
